Oil Spikes as Iran Hardens Hormuz Demands, the DAX Presses Record Highs and Bund Yields Climb Into Wednesday’s US CPI | Technical Analysis – European Session | 11-08-2026
Oil Spikes as Iran Hardens Hormuz Demands, the DAX Presses Record Highs and Bund Yields Climb Into Wednesday’s US CPI
EUR/USD · GBP/USD · Silver · Crude Oil · DAX 40 · Germany 10Y Bund · XRP · ETH/USD — live coverage through the European trading day
“Iran’s escalation over Hormuz is doing what OPEC+ supply hikes couldn’t — putting a real geopolitical risk premium back into crude, and European rates and equities are both having to price it in at the same time.”
Tuesday’s European session opened with the geopolitical risk premium firmly back in focus after Tehran’s Foreign Ministry laid out a sweeping list of conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, effectively closing the door on a near-term diplomatic resolution. Crude Oil WTI futures jumped more than 2% in early trade, extending Monday’s gains and putting resistance near $84.70 back in play, a move that is rippling into European rates markets as traders reassess the inflation outlook heading into Wednesday’s US CPI report.
European equities are largely shrugging off the energy-led inflation angst for now, with the DAX 40 pressing toward fresh record highs above 26,300, buoyed by resilient earnings from industrial and technology-linked names and a broader risk-on tone carried over from Monday’s Wall Street session. The euro is drawing additional support from Monday’s stronger-than-expected Sentix Investor Confidence survey, which returned to positive territory for the first time since February, while Sterling continues to benefit from the broad Dollar softness that followed Friday’s shock US payrolls contraction.
European Session Economic Calendar — 11 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the European trading day (times in CET/BST unless noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇷Ongoing | Iran Foreign Ministry Hardens Hormuz Conditions | Demands blockade end, force withdrawal, sanctions relief, compensation | 🔴 CRITICAL | Driving the crude oil spike and broader risk-premium repricing |
| 🇩🇪Yesterday | Eurozone & German Sentix Investor Confidence (Aug) | Eurozone 0.9 vs -0.5 exp. (prior -3.1); Germany -11.9 (prior -19.4) | 🟢 MEDIUM | Beat keeps euro supported into the European open |
| 🇩🇪08:00 CET | German Wholesale Price Index (July) | Monthly and annual wholesale inflation reading | ⏰ LOW | Secondary input for the Eurozone inflation outlook |
| 🇬🇧09:30 BST | UK Claimant Count Change & ILO Unemployment Rate | Labour market health check ahead of Thursday’s BoE-relevant data | 🟢 MEDIUM | Key swing factor for near-term GBP direction |
| ₿All Day | ECB Speakers on the Summer Circuit | Commentary on the inflation path into the Sept 10 Governing Council meeting | 🟢 MEDIUM | Markets assign roughly a 79% probability to a September hold |
| 🇺🇸Wed 12 Aug | US CPI (July) | Headline and core inflation, the key input for the Fed’s September path | 🔴 CRITICAL | Single most important data point of the week for rate-hike odds |
| 🇪🇺Thu 14 Aug | Eurozone Q2 GDP Second Estimate (Eurostat) | Flash reading confirmed growth of 0.4% q/q, beating the 0.2% forecast | 🔴 CRITICAL | Confirmation would reinforce the ECB’s cautious, data-dependent stance |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | CME FedWatch September Hike Pricing | Markets assign roughly 42–44% probability to a 25bp hike | 🔴 CRITICAL | Down sharply from ~67% a week ago after Friday’s payrolls miss |
| ₿Ongoing | XRP CLARITY Act Senate Vote Delay | Bill failed to reach a vote before the August recess; next window September | 🟢 MEDIUM | Removing a near-term regulatory catalyst, keeping XRP the week’s laggard |
European Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s eight key instruments
EUR/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
EUR/USD is holding just under a three-week high near 1.1553, supported by Monday’s stronger-than-expected Sentix Investor Confidence reading and last week’s 0.4% Q2 GDP flash beat. Broad Dollar softness following Friday’s shock US payrolls contraction remains the dominant driver, though Thursday’s Eurozone GDP second estimate and Wednesday’s US CPI print carry two-way risk.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating in an ascending channel off the early-August lows near 1.1500. A break above the 1.1600 resistance zone would open a path toward 1.1650 and the 52-week high region, while a slip below 1.1510 risks a deeper pullback toward the 1.1460 support shelf.
GBP/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Sterling is holding firm near 1.3508 as the broad Dollar pullback that followed Friday’s disappointing US payrolls report continues to dominate price action. This morning’s UK claimant count and ILO unemployment data are the next domestic catalyst, with a soft print likely to reinforce BoE easing bets while a resilient reading could see GBP extend its recent gains.
Technical Outlook
Cable remains inside a well-defined ascending structure, with buyers repeatedly defending the rising trendline near 1.3450. A clean break above 1.3560 would open a path toward the 1.3620 zone and beyond toward the 52-week high near 1.3869, while a loss of 1.3380 would risk a deeper corrective move.
Silver
Fundamental Backdrop
Silver is holding above $66 an ounce, a fresh seven-week high, drawing support from gold’s rally as a monetary hedge amid rekindled inflation risk from the oil spike, alongside robust industrial demand tied to solar panel and electricity-grid production. Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores surged 62.5% year-on-year in June.
Technical Outlook
Price is extending its impulsive rally off the July lows near $55, now testing the upper boundary of its recent range. A hold above $65 keeps the path open toward $68.50, while a slip back below $63.80 would risk a deeper pullback toward the 50-day support shelf.
Crude Oil (WTI)
Fundamental Backdrop
WTI crude jumped over 2% after Iran’s Foreign Ministry laid out sweeping conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, effectively shelving near-term hopes of a diplomatic resolution and reigniting the geopolitical risk premium. This supply-shock catalyst is overwhelming the modest bearish pressure from OPEC+’s recent production quota increase.
Technical Outlook
Price has broken above the descending trendline connecting its lower highs since late July, bouncing sharply off the $74.32 low. The $84.70 level is the immediate resistance to watch; a clean break opens a path toward $86.00, while a pullback would likely find support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $79.37, close to the 100-day moving average.
DAX 40
Fundamental Backdrop
The DAX 40 is extending its record-high run above 26,300, with Siemens Energy, Infineon and Allianz among the session’s standout gainers on resilient earnings and continued strength in industrials and technology. The index is largely shrugging off the oil-driven inflation angst for now, though rising Bund yields are a risk to watch into Wednesday’s US CPI print.
Technical Outlook
Price remains in a well-defined uptrend, pressing directly against its all-time high with no clear overhead resistance. A shallow pullback toward the 26,050 pivot would offer a buy-the-dip opportunity in line with the prevailing trend, while a break below 25,600 would be the first sign of a more meaningful correction.
Germany 10Y (Bund Yield)
Fundamental Backdrop
The German 10-year Bund yield has climbed for a third consecutive session to around 3.20%, moving further away from last week’s three-week low of 3.10%, as the crude oil spike tied to the Hormuz standoff revives concerns that persistent energy-driven inflation could limit the ECB’s scope to ease policy. German government bonds continue to outperform US Treasuries as investors favour European markets amid greater near-term clarity over ECB policy.
Technical Outlook
Yields are pushing back toward the upper end of their recent range after bouncing off the 3.10% floor. A close above 3.20% would open a path toward 3.35%, a level last tested during the height of the Iran-war inflation scare, while a reversal back below 3.05% would suggest the current move is more a risk-premium spike than a durable re-pricing of the ECB’s rate path.
XRP
Fundamental Backdrop
XRP is trading near $1.02 after dipping toward the $1 support, remaining the weakest performer among major cryptocurrencies this week as the CLARITY Act’s failure to reach a Senate vote before the August recess removes a near-term regulatory catalyst. Broader risk sentiment remains cautious, with capital continuing to favour larger-cap crypto assets.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating in a tight range between the $0.99–$1.00 support zone and the $1.036 resistance that bulls need to reclaim to improve the short-term outlook. A confirmed break below $1 would open a path toward $0.94, while a reclaim of $1.036 would shift the near-term bias back toward the top of the recent range.
ETH/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Ethereum is consolidating near $1,877, holding within its established $1,840–$1,920 range. Spot ETH ETFs recorded their strongest weekly inflows in nearly four months last week, extending a cumulative streak of over $11 billion, even as broader crypto sentiment stays cautious amid the CLARITY Act’s Senate delay and Bitcoin’s own choppy price action near $64,000.
Technical Outlook
ETH remains pinned between its 20-day EMA near $1,868, effectively at spot, and the 50-day EMA support near $1,850. A daily close above $1,900 would strengthen the near-term outlook and put the 100-day EMA near $1,924 back in reach, while a loss of the $1,850 floor would risk a slide toward the $1,800 zone.
European Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why did Crude Oil jump so sharply this morning?
Why is the DAX 40 hitting record highs while oil prices spike and Bund yields rise?
Why are German Bund yields rising even though the ECB is expected to hold rates in September?
Why is XRP underperforming the broader crypto market this week?
What should traders watch for the rest of the week?
European Session Summary — Tuesday, 11 August 2026 (Live Update)
Tuesday’s European session is being shaped by the Strait of Hormuz standoff re-asserting itself as the dominant cross-asset driver: Iran’s hardline conditions for reopening the waterway sent Crude Oil WTI surging over 2% to test resistance near $84.70, and that same energy-inflation link is pushing Germany’s 10-year Bund yield to a third straight session of gains toward 3.20%, even as the DAX 40 presses fresh record highs above 26,300 on resilient earnings and Monday’s stronger-than-expected Sentix Investor Confidence reading. The euro is holding just under a three-week high near 1.1553 and Sterling is firm near 1.3508, both still drawing support from the broad Dollar softness that followed Friday’s shock US payrolls contraction. Silver is holding above $66 an ounce, a fresh seven-week high, tracking gold’s rally and robust industrial demand. In digital assets, XRP is defending the $1 psychological level after the CLARITY Act’s failure to reach a Senate vote before the August recess, while ETH/USD is consolidating in its established $1,840–$1,920 range, cushioned by another strong week of spot ETF inflows. Highest-conviction session idea: buy Crude Oil dips toward $81.50, targeting $86.00 — Iran’s hardened Hormuz conditions are a powerful, immediate supply-risk catalyst, though a surprise diplomatic breakthrough or a sharp OPEC+ supply response remain genuine sources of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: EUR/USD buy dips toward 1.1510, stop 1.1460, target 1.1650 — Sentix-driven confidence and broad Dollar softness are genuine tailwinds, though Wednesday’s US CPI and Thursday’s Eurozone GDP second estimate are real sources of two-way risk. GBP/USD buy dips toward 1.3450, stop 1.3380, target 1.3620 — broad Dollar softness is a genuine tailwind, though this morning’s UK labour market data could spark volatility in either direction. Silver buy dips toward $65.00, stop $63.80, target $68.50 — gold’s monetary-hedge rally and robust industrial demand are genuine tailwinds, though a de-escalation in the Hormuz standoff could cool the safe-haven bid. Crude Oil buy dips toward $81.50, stop $79.80, target $86.00 — the Hormuz supply-risk premium is a genuine tailwind, though a diplomatic breakthrough is a real source of two-way risk. DAX 40 buy dips toward 26,050, stop 25,600, target 26,900 — resilient earnings and improving Eurozone sentiment are genuine tailwinds, though rising Bund yields into Wednesday’s US CPI are a risk to watch. Germany 10Y Bund yield watch for a push toward 3.35% before stabilizing, invalidation 3.05% — the oil-driven inflation scare is a genuine tailwind for higher yields, though the ECB’s cautious, data-dependent stance is a real source of two-way risk. XRP await a confirmed break of the $0.99–$1.036 range before committing directionally — the CLARITY Act delay could resolve either way as a catalyst, making this a breakout-confirmation setup rather than a conviction call. ETH/USD buy dips toward $1,850, stop $1,800, target $1,980 — strong spot ETF inflows are a genuine tailwind, though broader risk-off crypto positioning tied to the CLARITY Act delay is a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are how markets digest any further headlines on the Strait of Hormuz standoff and this morning’s UK labour market data, with Wednesday’s US CPI print and Thursday’s Eurozone Q2 GDP second estimate the next major catalysts. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply as the session progresses.
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