Palantir’s Blowout Beat Fires Up Asia’s AI Trade as the Yen Holds Its Intervention-Driven Gains | Technical Analysis – Asian Session | 04-08-2025
Palantir’s Blowout Beat Fires Up Asia’s AI Trade as the Yen Holds Its Intervention-Driven Gains
USD/JPY · AUD/USD · Copper · Natural Gas · Hang Seng · Cardano · Litecoin — live Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney coverage through the Asian session
“Palantir’s earnings just gave the AI trade fresh fuel, Hong Kong is seizing the moment, and the yen keeps proving a confirmed intervention can hold firm even as the headlines fade.”
Tuesday’s Asian trade is being shaped first and foremost by Palantir’s second-quarter earnings, released after Monday’s US close: revenue climbed 93% year-on-year to $1.94 billion against a $1.81 billion consensus, adjusted EPS came in at $0.41 versus $0.35 expected, and US commercial revenue surged 149%, extending the company’s beat streak to nine straight quarters. Shares jumped about 12% in the aftermath, and that AI-trade optimism is flowing directly into Asia, most visibly in Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng is building on Monday’s 0.48% advance to trade near 25,940, powered by Alibaba’s 7% surge on the back of its new Qwen 3.8-Max model and a broad rally in solar names including Xinyi Solar’s 13%-plus jump.
In currencies, USD/JPY is consolidating near 157.55, up a little over a quarter of a percent on the day but still holding onto the bulk of last week’s slide that followed Japan’s Ministry of Finance confirming coordinated yen-buying with the US Treasury; dealers remain wary of further official action should the pair push back toward the upper 150s. AUD/USD is firm near 0.6981 ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 10-11 August meeting, where a hold at 4.35% is now the unanimous call among the big four local banks, with the currency also benefiting from a fresh leg higher in industrial metals. Copper has printed a record high near $13,842 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange as disruptions to Chilean supply meet surging demand from AI data-centre and power-infrastructure buildouts, while US Natural Gas continues to languish near three-month lows around $2.77/MMBtu on record Lower-48 production and inventories that remain comfortably above the five-year average. In crypto, Cardano is the standout mover, rallying toward $0.196 as traders position for the network’s next scalability phase, while Litecoin is drifting lower near $44.34 after a bearish short-term moving-average crossover.
Asian Session News Flow
The stories moving USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Copper, Natural Gas, Hang Seng, Cardano and Litecoin this session
Asian Session Economic Calendar — 4 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney trading hours (local times as noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸Overnight | Palantir Q2 2026 Earnings Beat | Revenue $1.94bn vs $1.81bn est.; EPS $0.41 vs $0.35 est.; shares +12% | 🔴 CRITICAL | Primary driver of today’s Asia risk-on tone in AI-linked names |
| 🇭🇰Ongoing | Hang Seng Extends Gains on Alibaba’s Qwen 3.8-Max | Index near 25,940 after Monday’s close at 26,009 (+0.48%) | 🔴 CRITICAL | AI and solar-led rally reinforcing regional risk appetite |
| 🇯🇵Ongoing | MOF/US Treasury Intervention Follow-Through Watch | USD/JPY holding near 157.55 after last week’s ~5% slide | 🔴 CRITICAL | Markets alert for renewed verbal or physical intervention |
| 🇦🇺10-11 Aug | RBA Monetary Policy Decision (Upcoming) | All four majors now expect a hold at 4.35% | 🟢 MEDIUM | AUD/USD steady near 0.6981 as a hold is largely priced in |
| 🇩🇪Ongoing | LME Copper Prints Fresh Record High | Three-month copper near $13,842/mt on Chile disruptions | 🟢 MEDIUM | AI data-centre and grid demand compounding supply tightness |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | EIA Natural Gas Storage Overhang | Inventories running ~6.4% above the five-year seasonal average | 🟢 MEDIUM | Keeps Natural Gas pinned near three-month lows near $2.77 |
| ₿Ongoing | Cardano “Dijkstra Era” Roadmap Repricing | ADA near $0.196 after Van Rossem hard fork and Midnight deal news | 🟢 MEDIUM | Scalability roadmap anticipation driving outsized crypto move |
Asian Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s seven key instruments
USD/JPY
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/JPY is holding near 157.55, up modestly on the day but still carrying the bulk of last week’s roughly 5% decline that followed the Ministry of Finance’s confirmation of coordinated yen-buying with the US Treasury. A narrowing US-Japan rate differential, with markets adding to Fed easing bets while the Bank of Japan holds its policy rate at a decade-plus high, continues to underpin the yen’s structural bid.
Technical Outlook
The pair remains in a broader downtrend since its intervention-triggered reversal from above 160, consolidating in a 156-158 band. A failure to reclaim 159.50 on rallies keeps the bearish structure intact and exposes the 155.50 zone; a push back above 160.80 would risk a squeeze higher should officials signal the intervention campaign has run its course.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any fresh verbal or physical intervention from Japanese officials; (2) further confirmation details on the scale of last week’s operations; (3) incoming US labour-market and inflation data that could firm up Fed rate-cut pricing; (4) BOJ commentary on the pace of further policy normalisation.
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AUD/USD
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
AUD/USD is trading near 0.6981, little changed on the day, as markets look ahead to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 10-11 August meeting, where all four major domestic banks now expect the cash rate to be held at 4.35% following softer-than-expected June-quarter inflation. The currency is also drawing support from record commodity prices, with copper’s fresh push to all-time highs reinforcing Australia’s terms-of-trade backdrop.
Technical Outlook
The pair is grinding higher inside a gentle uptrend, holding above its recent consolidation shelf. A hold above the 0.6930 entry zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the 0.7100 target; a break below the 0.6870 stop-loss level would risk a slide back toward 0.6800 should risk appetite in the region fade.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any pre-meeting commentary from RBA officials; (2) follow-through in industrial metal prices, particularly copper and iron ore; (3) broader risk sentiment from the region’s AI-driven equity rally; (4) incoming Australian trade and retail data ahead of next week’s decision.
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Copper
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
Copper is trading near $6.58 a pound, extending a rally that pushed three-month LME copper to an all-time record near $13,842 a tonne. Supply disruptions in Chile, the world’s largest producer, are colliding with surging demand from AI data-centre construction and power-grid infrastructure, a combination analysts say could keep input costs elevated for electronics, EVs and household appliances.
Technical Outlook
The metal is in a well-defined uptrend, having cleared a series of resistance levels on its way to record territory. A hold above the $6.30 buy-dip zone keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the $6.90 target; a break below the $6.05 stop-loss level would risk a deeper corrective pullback toward $5.80 should Chinese demand data disappoint.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) updates on the scale and duration of Chilean supply disruptions; (2) fresh AI-infrastructure and data-centre capex announcements; (3) Chinese manufacturing PMI and stimulus signals; (4) LME inventory and exchange-warehouse data.
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Natural Gas
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
US Natural Gas is holding near $2.77/MMBtu, close to its lowest level in three months, weighed down by record Lower-48 production of 110.6 bcf/d and inventories running roughly 6.4% above the five-year seasonal average. A smaller-than-expected storage build in the latest EIA report offered only limited support, with softer LNG feedgas demand and cooler weather forecasts adding to the oversupplied backdrop.
Technical Outlook
The market remains in a persistent downtrend, with each attempted bounce so far fading below prior resistance. A failure to clear $2.95 on rallies keeps the bearish structure intact and exposes the $2.55 target; a break back above $3.10 would risk a squeeze toward $3.30 should weather forecasts turn hotter or LNG export flows pick up.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) the next weekly EIA storage report; (2) any shift toward hotter late-summer weather forecasts that could lift air-conditioning demand; (3) LNG export terminal maintenance schedules, including Freeport LNG; (4) Lower-48 production trends.
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Hang Seng
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
The Hang Seng is trading near 25,940, extending Monday’s 0.48% close at 26,009, as Alibaba’s unveiling of its Qwen 3.8-Max AI model drove the stock up more than 7% and reignited broader tech and AI-related buying. Solar names including Xinyi Solar jumped over 13%, and Palantir’s blowout US earnings overnight have reinforced the same AI-trade optimism that is lifting risk appetite across the region.
Technical Outlook
The index is in an established uptrend, having posted its best week since September 2025 last week. A hold above the 25,600 buy-dip zone keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the 26,600 target; a break below the 25,200 stop-loss level would risk a deeper pullback toward 24,800 should Chinese PMI data or property-sector concerns resurface.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) further AI-model announcements from Chinese tech majors; (2) Hong Kong Financial Secretary commentary on the 2026 GDP growth forecast; (3) China’s official PMI releases; (4) follow-through from Palantir’s earnings into broader global tech sentiment.
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Cardano
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
Cardano is sharply higher near $0.196, with the market pricing in the network’s next “Dijkstra era” scalability phase following last month’s Van Rossem hard fork, which introduced Protocol Version 11 and enhanced Plutus smart-contract capabilities. A reported partnership tied to Cardano’s Midnight privacy sidechain and a major banking institution is adding to the bullish narrative around the ecosystem’s institutional ambitions.
Technical Outlook
ADA has broken sharply higher out of a multi-week consolidation range, with momentum indicators turning decisively positive. A hold above the $0.185 buy-dip zone keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the $0.220 target; a break below the $0.172 stop-loss level would risk a slide back toward $0.162 should the broader crypto market roll over.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) further detail on the Dijkstra-era technical roadmap; (2) confirmation and scale of the Midnight banking partnership; (3) broader Layer-1 sector rotation; (4) staking participation and treasury-fund deployment updates.
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Litecoin
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
Litecoin is trading near $44.34, down around 1% over the past 24 hours after breaking down from the ascending channel it had held since late June. Longer-term catalysts remain intact, including the upcoming LitecoinVM smart-contract upgrade and a recently reported milestone in wrapped cbLTC reserves, but near-term price action has turned soft.
Technical Outlook
The 4-hour chart shows a bearish EMA crossover, with the 20-period average now below the 50-period average, both sitting above spot as overhead resistance. A failure to clear $46.00 on rallies keeps the bearish structure intact and exposes the $41.50 target; a break back above $47.80 would risk a recovery toward $50.00 should broader crypto sentiment improve.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) further detail on the LitecoinVM smart-contract roadmap; (2) wrapped cbLTC reserve flow updates; (3) broader Bitcoin and proof-of-work sector sentiment; (4) confirmation of a close below $44.25, which would be an initial bearish signal for a deeper move toward $41.61.
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Asian Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Did Palantir’s earnings actually beat, and why does it matter for Asia?
Is USD/JPY still at risk of another intervention?
Why is copper hitting record highs, and is it linked to AI?
What’s driving Cardano’s rally while Litecoin lags?
Asian Session Summary — Tuesday, 4 August 2026 (Live Update)
Tuesday’s Asian session is being driven by Palantir’s blowout second-quarter earnings, released after Monday’s US close, with revenue up 93% year-on-year to $1.94 billion and shares surging roughly 12% on a ninth consecutive beat. That AI-trade optimism is flowing directly into Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng is extending Monday’s 0.48% gain to trade near 25,940, powered by Alibaba’s 7% surge on its new Qwen 3.8-Max model and a broad solar-sector rally. In FX, USD/JPY is consolidating near 157.55, holding the bulk of last week’s intervention-driven slide as traders stay alert for further action from Japan’s Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury, while AUD/USD is steady near 0.6981 ahead of next week’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, where a hold at 4.35% is now the unanimous call among the big four local banks. Commodities are diverging sharply: Copper has surged to a record high near $13,842 a tonne on Chile supply disruptions and AI data-centre demand, while US Natural Gas remains pinned near three-month lows around $2.77/MMBtu on record production and comfortable inventories. In digital assets, Cardano is the standout mover, rallying toward $0.196 on “Dijkstra era” roadmap anticipation, while Litecoin is softer near $44.34 after a bearish EMA crossover. Highest-conviction session idea: buy Hang Seng dips toward 25,600, targeting 26,600 — the combination of Palantir’s AI-trade validation and Alibaba’s own model reveal is a powerful multi-pronged tailwind for regional tech, though a reversal in Chinese PMI data or renewed property-sector concerns are genuine sources of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: USD/JPY sell rallies toward 159.50, stop 160.80, target 155.50 — the yen’s intervention-driven structural bid and a narrowing US-Japan rate differential are genuine tailwinds for further strength, though a signal that officials are pausing the campaign is a real source of two-way risk. AUD/USD buy dips toward 0.6930, stop 0.6870, target 0.7100 — a widely expected RBA hold and record commodity prices are genuine tailwinds, though a broader risk-off shift in regional equities is a real headwind. Copper buy dips toward $6.30, stop $6.05, target $6.90 — Chilean supply disruptions and AI-driven demand are powerful tailwinds, though a swift resolution to the supply issues or weak Chinese demand data are real sources of two-way risk. Natural Gas sell rallies toward $2.95, stop $3.10, target $2.55 — record production and above-average inventories are genuine tailwinds for further downside, though a shift toward hotter late-summer weather is a real source of two-way risk. Hang Seng buy dips toward 25,600, stop 25,200, target 26,600 — the AI-trade revival and strong turnover are genuine tailwinds, though a reversal in Chinese PMI data is a real headwind. Cardano buy dips toward $0.185, stop $0.172, target $0.220 — roadmap anticipation and reported institutional partnership news are genuine tailwinds, though the move has already been sharp and a pullback risk is real. Litecoin sell rallies toward $46.00, stop $47.80, target $41.50 — a bearish EMA crossover and lack of near-term catalysts are headwinds, though the LitecoinVM upgrade remains a longer-term source of two-way risk. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are any follow-through or fresh commentary from Japanese and US officials on the yen, confirmation of the details behind Cardano’s Midnight banking partnership, incoming Chinese PMI data, and any further AI-linked earnings or product announcements that could extend Tuesday’s risk-on tone. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply intraday.
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