US Session Report — Tuesday, 4 August 2026 | Capital Street FX
Wall Street Pushes to Record Highs as Iran Optimism and Earnings Fuel the Rally
USD/CAD · USD/CHF · Gold · Natural Gas · Nasdaq 100 · US 20Y · BTC/USD · XRP — live New York session coverage through the US trading hours
“S&P and Dow at record highs, Nasdaq 100 back on the AI trade, gold still above $4,000 — the market is betting on de-escalation while quietly hedging the downside.”
US equities remain in firm control on Tuesday, building on Monday’s record close after President Trump held off a planned strike on Iran and signaled his latest offer of talks represents Tehran’s “last chance,” with a deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz reportedly close. That relief is flowing directly into risk assets: the Nasdaq 100 is leading the major benchmarks higher as chip stocks rebound from last week’s AI-capex-driven wobble, while the Dow and S&P 500 both trade at fresh record levels. A dense earnings calendar — headlined by SpaceX’s debut quarterly report as a public company, along with AMD, Caterpillar, Merck and McDonald’s — is adding a second engine to the rally, on top of Monday’s standout prints from Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet.
Currency and rates markets are telling a more cautious story underneath the equity euphoria. USD/CAD and USD/CHF are both firmer as the broadly bid dollar draws support from a Federal Reserve that left rates unchanged last week but offered little forward guidance under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with money markets still pricing meaningful odds of a September hike. Treasury yields are easing from recent highs as falling oil prices trim near-term inflation expectations, even as the underlying hawkish risk stays alive. Gold’s refusal to sell off meaningfully despite the risk-on tape is the session’s most interesting cross-current, reflecting persistent central-bank buying and lingering hedges against a Middle East situation that remains fluid. Crypto markets are firmer but comparatively subdued, with BTC/USD extending its recovery from the weekend’s Coldcard hardware-wallet exploit while XRP stays capped, still awaiting a scheduling breakthrough on the CLARITY Act.
US Session Headlines
The stories driving price action across New York trading hours
US Session Economic Calendar — 4 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through New York trading hours (Eastern Time)
| Time (ET) | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸Overnight | Trump Says Iran Deal Near, Oil Slides on Hormuz Hopes | WTI near $81.00, Brent near $84, after Monday’s near-5% slide | 🔴 CRITICAL | Primary driver of today’s risk-on tone across US equities |
| 🇺🇸08:30 AM | US Trade Balance (June) | Forecast: -$76.50B · Previous: -$77.59B | 🟢 MEDIUM | Watched for tariff-related shifts in cross-border flows |
| 🇺🇸10:00 AM | Factory Orders MoM (June) | Forecast: -0.8% · Previous: -1.3% | 🟢 MEDIUM | Key gauge of industrial demand ahead of Friday’s payrolls |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | Nasdaq 100 Leads Record Push Near 29,150 | Index up roughly 1.6% on the session on semiconductor rebound | 🔴 CRITICAL | Earnings and easing yields reinforcing risk appetite in tech |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | US 20-Year Yield Eases Toward 5.08% | Retreating from recent multi-week highs | 🟢 MEDIUM | Cheaper oil trimming near-term inflation expectations |
| 🇺🇸After Close | SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, Merck, McDonald’s Report Earnings | SpaceX’s first quarterly report as a public company | 🔴 CRITICAL | Could set the tone for Wednesday’s pre-market tape |
| 🇺🇸This week | Payrolls Week Ahead of Friday’s NFP Release | ADP and ISM Services due Wednesday; NFP due Friday | 🟢 MEDIUM | Keeping USD/CAD and USD/CHF supported into month-end |
| ₿Ongoing | CLARITY Act Still Awaits Senate Floor Vote | XRP capped below $1.09 resistance just days before the Senate’s August recess | 🟢 MEDIUM | Regulatory clarity remains the key swing factor for XRP positioning |
US Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s eight key instruments
USD/CAD
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CAD is holding near 1.4050, firmer on the session as Monday’s near-5% slide in crude oil weighs on the oil-sensitive Canadian dollar, even as broader risk appetite improves. A broadly bid US dollar, underpinned by a Federal Reserve that offered little forward guidance last week, is adding further support to the pair.
Technical Outlook
The pair is consolidating a firm uptrend that has carried it more than 1000 pips higher since the Middle East conflict began. A reclaim of the 1.4000 zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the 1.4150 area; a break back below 1.3950 would risk a deeper pullback toward 1.3900.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any follow-through in oil prices, the pair’s dominant cross-asset driver; (2) today’s US trade balance and factory orders releases; (3) fresh Fed commentary ahead of September; (4) Canadian labour-market data due later this week.
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USD/CHF
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CHF is holding near 0.8159, little changed on the session but extending a multi-week grind higher as fading safe-haven demand for the franc, in a broadly risk-on tape, combines with a US dollar that remains supported by hawkish uncertainty around the Fed’s next move.
Technical Outlook
The pair maintains a clear bullish structure, with the technical picture pointing toward 0.8400 as the next major resistance level. Dips toward the 0.8120 demand zone are being viewed as a launchpad for continuation, while a break below 0.8060 would open the door to a deeper corrective move.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any further easing in Middle East risk premia, which tends to weigh on the franc’s safe-haven bid; (2) fresh Fed commentary ahead of September; (3) Swiss inflation data later this week; (4) broader dollar dynamics into Friday’s payrolls.
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Gold (XAU/USD)
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
Gold is holding near $4,090, up on the day and refusing to give up ground even as equities push to record highs. Persistent central-bank diversification away from the dollar, a rising US debt-to-GDP ratio and lingering hedges against a Middle East situation that remains fluid are keeping a firm bid under bullion.
Technical Outlook
The metal remains in a broader uptrend after its pullback from January’s record above $5,589. Deutsche Bank continues to see the metal in an “explosive phase,” with a year-end fair value estimate near $4,700. A defense of the $4,020 zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes fresh highs toward $4,250.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any breakthrough or breakdown in Iran-US talks over the Strait of Hormuz; (2) fresh Fed commentary on the path of rates; (3) central-bank gold reserve data; (4) Friday’s non-farm payrolls, which could reprice both real yields and the dollar.
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Natural Gas
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
Natural Gas is trading near $2.77/MMBtu, down modestly on the session and hovering near its lowest levels since early May. Inventories remain 6.4% above the five-year seasonal average, with Lower 48 production matching record highs and LNG export flows softening on scheduled maintenance at Freeport LNG.
Technical Outlook
The commodity is down more than 14% over the past month, with updated forecasts pointing to cooler weather across the central and eastern US reducing near-term electricity demand for air conditioning. A failure to reclaim $2.95 on rallies keeps the bearish structure intact and exposes the $2.50 zone.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) Thursday’s EIA weekly storage report; (2) any updated weather forecasts for the balance of August; (3) LNG export terminal maintenance schedules; (4) production data out of the Lower 48.
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Nasdaq 100
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
The Nasdaq 100 is trading near 29,150, up roughly 1.6% and leading the major US benchmarks higher as chip and AI-infrastructure stocks rebound sharply from last week’s capex-driven wobble. The Invesco QQQ Trust jumped over 2% at the open, with the rally broadening well beyond the mega-cap names that carried Monday’s session.
Technical Outlook
The index is pushing back toward its 52-week highs after a brief pullback into correction territory last month. A hold above the 28,600 zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes fresh highs toward 30,000; a break back below 28,150 would risk a retest of the 27,200 area.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) after-the-bell earnings from SpaceX and AMD; (2) any follow-through in Treasury yields; (3) fresh Iran-related headlines; (4) Friday’s non-farm payrolls, the week’s key macro catalyst.
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US 20Y Yield
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
The US 20-year Treasury yield is easing back near 5.08%, retreating modestly from recent multi-week highs as Monday’s sharp drop in oil prices trims near-term inflation expectations. The 10-year note is holding near 4.70%, with markets pricing roughly 60-65% odds of a further 25bp Fed hike in September.
Technical Outlook
Yields remain in a broader uptrend that has persisted for most of the year, with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s reluctance to offer forward guidance keeping term premia elevated. A hold below 5.25% keeps the current pullback intact and exposes the 4.90% zone; a break above would risk a retest of cycle highs.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) today’s US trade balance and factory orders data; (2) fresh commentary from Fed officials ahead of September; (3) Wednesday’s ADP employment report and ISM Services PMI; (4) Friday’s non-farm payrolls.
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BTC/USD
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
BTC/USD is trading near $63,800, firmer on the session as broader risk appetite extends into digital assets alongside record-setting equities. The move continues Bitcoin’s recovery from the weekend’s Coldcard hardware-wallet exploit, with on-chain data showing wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC adding coins since Friday.
Technical Outlook
Bitcoin remains within a broader descending channel dating back to late July, with the recent pullback having pushed price below the 20-day moving average. A defense of the $61,500 zone on dips would support a retest of the channel’s upper trendline; a break below $59,800 would risk a deeper corrective move.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any further developments in the Coldcard exploit investigation; (2) spot Bitcoin ETF flow data; (3) any scheduling update on the CLARITY Act; (4) broader risk sentiment tied to the equity rally and Fed policy path.
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XRP
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
XRP is trading near $1.07, soft on the session and tracking fresh court-docket updates in Ripple’s long-running US securities case more closely than broader macro news. The token remains capped below the $1.09 resistance zone, with the CLARITY Act still lacking a scheduled Senate floor vote.
Technical Outlook
XRP remains within a multi-week descending channel, with the Relative Strength Index having slipped below the neutral 50 level. A failure to reclaim $1.12 on rallies keeps the bearish structure intact and exposes the $0.95 zone; a decisive breakout above the channel’s upper trendline would open the door toward $1.11 and beyond.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any scheduling breakthrough on the CLARITY Act ahead of the Senate’s August recess; (2) fresh developments in the Ripple SEC litigation; (3) broader crypto risk sentiment tied to Bitcoin’s recovery; (4) any regulatory commentary from the SEC or CFTC.
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US Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why are US stocks at record highs while gold is also holding near $4,100?
Is the Nasdaq 100’s rebound sustainable, or is this a short-covering bounce?
Will the Fed still hike rates in September given falling oil prices?
What’s keeping USD/CHF and USD/CAD firm today?
US Session Summary — Tuesday, 4 August 2026 (Live Update)
Tuesday’s US session is being shaped by the continuation of Monday’s sharp de-escalation rally, after President Trump held off a further strike on Iran and signaled his latest offer of talks is Tehran’s “last chance,” with a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz reportedly close. That optimism, combined with a heavy corporate earnings slate headlined by SpaceX’s first quarterly report as a public company alongside AMD, Caterpillar, Merck and McDonald’s, is powering the S&P 500 and Dow to fresh record highs, with the Nasdaq 100 the standout performer near 29,150 as semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names rebound sharply from last week’s capex-driven wobble. In FX, USD/CAD is holding firm above 1.4050 as the oil-sensitive loonie softens alongside falling crude prices, while USD/CHF continues its grind higher toward 0.8400 resistance as safe-haven franc demand fades in the risk-on tape and the broader dollar stays supported by uncertainty over Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s next move. Gold is the session’s most interesting cross-current, holding near $4,090 and refusing to sell off meaningfully despite the equity rally, reflecting persistent central-bank buying and hedges against the chance the de-escalation narrative doesn’t hold. Natural Gas remains soft near $2.77/MMBtu on ample storage and cooler weather forecasts, while the US 20-year Treasury yield is easing toward 5.08% as falling oil trims near-term inflation expectations even as a September Fed hike stays very much in play. In digital assets, BTC/USD is firming near $63,800 as risk appetite broadens into crypto following the weekend’s Coldcard exploit, while XRP stays soft near $1.07, still capped below $1.09 with the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate just days before its August recess. Highest-conviction session idea: buy Nasdaq 100 dips toward 28,600, targeting 30,000 — the combination of a genuine semiconductor rebound, easing yields and a heavy positive earnings slate is a powerful multi-pronged tailwind for the index, though disappointing after-the-bell results from SpaceX or AMD are a genuine source of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: USD/CAD buy dips toward 1.4000, stop 1.3950, target 1.4150 — falling oil prices weighing on the loonie and a broadly bid dollar are genuine tailwinds, though a rebound in crude is a real source of two-way risk. USD/CHF buy dips toward 0.8120, stop 0.8060, target 0.8300 — fading safe-haven franc demand and dollar strength are genuine tailwinds, though a renewed flare-up in Middle East risk is a real source of two-way risk. Gold buy dips toward $4,020, stop $3,950, target $4,250 — persistent central-bank buying and lingering geopolitical hedges are powerful tailwinds, though a durable de-escalation outcome is a real source of two-way risk. Natural Gas sell rallies toward $2.95, stop $3.10, target $2.50 — ample storage and cooler weather forecasts are genuine headwinds, though any LNG export disruption is a real source of two-way risk. Nasdaq 100 buy dips toward 28,600, stop 28,150, target 30,000 — a genuine semiconductor rebound and strong earnings are tailwinds, though a disappointing SpaceX or AMD print is a real headwind. US 20Y yields are a two-way range between 4.90% and 5.25% — easing oil-driven inflation expectations are a headwind for yields, while firm Fed hike pricing is a genuine tailwind for further gains. BTC/USD is a two-way range between $59,800 and $68,000 — broadening risk appetite is a tailwind, though lingering Coldcard-exploit concerns are a real source of two-way risk. XRP sell rallies toward $1.12, stop $1.18, target $0.95 — a bearish technical structure and stalled regulatory catalysts are headwinds, though a CLARITY Act breakthrough remains a genuine source of two-way risk. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are after-the-bell earnings from SpaceX and AMD, any follow-through in oil prices, fresh Fed commentary ahead of September, and any scheduling update on the CLARITY Act Senate vote. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply intraday.
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