US Session Report — Monday, 10 August 2026 | Capital Street FX
Dollar Steadies Into a CPI-Heavy Week as Iran Denies Direct Hormuz Talks and the Nasdaq 100 Holds Just Below Record Highs
USD/CAD · USD/CHF · Gold · Crude Oil · Nasdaq 100 · US 10Y · BTC/USD · Litecoin — live coverage through the New York trading day
“A market that just spent a week repricing the Fed off one payrolls miss is not going to sit still for a CPI print — it’s just deciding which way to lean before Wednesday.”
Monday’s US session opens in a holding pattern, with Wall Street digesting Friday’s much weaker-than-expected July jobs report — a 23,000 payrolls contraction alongside downward revisions to May and June — against a fresh denial from Tehran that it is holding direct talks with Washington over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, even as President Trump insists a deal is close. That combination is keeping the Dollar mixed rather than directional: USD/CAD has eased to 1.3962 from Friday’s 1.4013 close, while USD/CHF has slipped to 0.8072, both pairs reflecting a Dollar that lost some of its rate-hike premium after Friday’s data but has not fully surrendered its haven appeal given the unresolved Hormuz standoff. The Nasdaq 100 is trading a touch softer near 29,421, pulling back modestly after Friday’s 1.3% surge to a fresh record close, as investors turn their attention to Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index and Thursday’s Producer Price Index releases, the two data points most likely to move CME FedWatch’s roughly 42–44% implied probability of a 25-basis-point September Fed hike. Big-name earnings from Applied Materials, Cisco and CoreWeave are also due this week, adding another layer of event risk into an index that remains within a few hundred points of its all-time high.
Across commodities, Gold is consolidating near $4,335 an ounce, holding on to the bulk of Friday’s post-payrolls surge that briefly lifted the metal to a two-month high near $4,372, its best level since mid-June, as traders weigh whether this week’s inflation data will validate the market’s dovish repricing of the Fed. Crude Oil is firmer for a second straight session near $79.30 a barrel, with Brent above $85, as Iran’s denial of direct US talks reintroduces uncertainty into a Hormuz negotiation that markets had hoped was nearing resolution, a dynamic reinforced over the weekend by a reported attack on a tanker operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. in the strait. The US 10-year Treasury yield is holding steady near 4.65% after Friday’s sharp seven-basis-point drop, with this week’s CPI print set to determine whether yields can extend that decline or snap back on a hotter-than-expected inflation surprise. In digital assets, Bitcoin is holding above $65,000 for a fourth consecutive session, up roughly 3.7% on the week, after the Senate punted the CLARITY Act crypto market-structure bill to the fall session, removing a near-term regulatory catalyst without derailing the broader uptrend, while Litecoin is firming toward $46.20, within striking distance of its own seven-day high near $46.38, tracking Bitcoin’s stability higher.
US Session News Flow
The stories moving USD/CAD, USD/CHF, Gold, Crude Oil, Nasdaq 100, US 10Y, BTC/USD and Litecoin this session
US Session Economic Calendar — 10 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the New York trading day (times in ET, GMT-4)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇷Ongoing | Iran Denies Direct Hormuz Talks With US | Tehran demands blockade end, sanctions relief, compensation | 🔴 CRITICAL | Reviving Dollar and oil haven demand into the US session |
| 🇺🇸Wed 12 Aug | US CPI (July) | Headline and core inflation the key input for Sept Fed path | 🔴 CRITICAL | Single most important data point of the week for rate-hike odds |
| 🇺🇸Thu 13 Aug | US PPI (July) | Producer-price pipeline pressures, follows CPI | 🔴 CRITICAL | Confirms or fades the CPI signal for the Fed’s September call |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | CME FedWatch September Hike Pricing | Markets assign roughly 42–44% probability to a 25bp hike | 🔴 CRITICAL | Down sharply from ~67% a week ago after Friday’s payrolls miss |
| 🇺🇸This Week | Big Tech Earnings: Applied Materials, Cisco, CoreWeave | Key reports for AI-infrastructure and semiconductor demand read | 🟢 MEDIUM | Could extend or unwind the Nasdaq 100’s push toward record highs |
| 🇮🇷Ongoing | Hormuz Tanker Attack & Houthi Jazan Refinery Claim | ADNOC-operated tanker targeted; Saudi refinery strike claimed | 🔴 CRITICAL | Reinforcing the risk premium supporting WTI and Brent |
| 🇺🇸This Week | Senate CLARITY Act Crypto Bill Punted to Fall | Market-structure legislation delayed, not derailed | 🟢 MEDIUM | Removes a near-term catalyst without disrupting BTC’s recovery |
| ₿Ongoing | Fed Chair Warsh’s September Rate-Path Signalling | Prepared to hike if inflation data comes in hot, per FT report | 🟢 MEDIUM | Keeps two-way risk alive heading into Wednesday’s CPI |
US Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s eight key instruments
USD/CAD
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CAD is easing back toward 1.3962 from Friday’s 1.4013 close as the Dollar digests the scale of last week’s payrolls contraction, with CME FedWatch now assigning only a 42–44% probability to a September Fed hike, down sharply from roughly 67% a week earlier.
Technical Outlook
Today’s range has held between 1.3926 and 1.4029. A clean break below 1.3926 opens a path toward the 1.3880 area, while a recovery back above 1.4010 would risk a squeeze toward 1.4060, particularly if Wednesday’s CPI print surprises to the upside and revives Fed hike bets.
USD/CHF
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CHF is holding near 0.8072, just below Friday’s 0.8080 close, as the Dollar’s post-payrolls softness keeps the pair capped, even as the Swiss Franc’s own haven appeal stays muted with no major Swiss data due this week.
Technical Outlook
The pair is consolidating in the 0.8068–0.8095 band that has defined Monday’s range so far. A break below 0.8068 would open a path toward 0.8020, while a recovery above 0.8100 would risk a retest of the 0.8140 area on a hawkish CPI surprise.
Gold
Fundamental Backdrop
Gold is consolidating near $4,335 an ounce after Friday’s blistering post-payrolls rally, which briefly lifted the metal to $4,372, its best level since mid-June, as softer Fed hike expectations continue to underpin bullion even as it pulls back from Friday’s intraday peak.
Technical Outlook
The metal has surpassed its 50-day moving average near $4,152 and is on its way to test the 100-day moving average near $4,390. A break above $4,390 would open the path toward $4,420 and then $4,450, while a fade back below $4,280 would risk a retest of the 50-day average and the $4,220 area, especially if this week’s CPI print comes in hot.
Crude Oil
Fundamental Backdrop
WTI is trading near $79.30 a barrel and Brent above $85, both firmer for a second straight session, after Iran denied holding direct talks with Washington over the Strait of Hormuz and a tanker operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. came under attack in the strait over the weekend.
Technical Outlook
Today’s range has held above Friday’s $78.20 settlement. A clean break above $80.00 would open a path toward the $82.00 area, while a fade back below $77.50 would risk a retest of $75.50, particularly if reports of progress in the Iran-Oman shipping-route talks resurface.
Nasdaq 100
Fundamental Backdrop
The Nasdaq 100 is trading a touch softer near 29,421 after Friday’s 1.3% surge to a fresh record close, as investors book some profit ahead of Wednesday’s CPI print, Thursday’s PPI release, and earnings from Applied Materials, Cisco and CoreWeave later this week.
Technical Outlook
The index remains within a few hundred points of its all-time high. A hold above 29,000 keeps the uptrend intact with a path back toward 30,000, while a break below 28,600 would risk a deeper pullback toward the 28,000 area, especially on a hotter-than-expected inflation surprise this week.
US 10Y Yield
Fundamental Backdrop
The US 10-year Treasury yield is holding near 4.65%, stabilising after Friday’s sharp seven-basis-point drop to 4.60% on the back of the shock payrolls miss, with Fed Chair Warsh reportedly prepared to consider a September hike if this week’s inflation data runs hot.
Technical Outlook
The yield is consolidating between last week’s low near 4.60% and its prior high near 4.69%. A hold above 4.58% keeps the path open toward 4.80% on a hawkish CPI surprise, while a break below 4.48% would open a path back toward the psychologically important 4.40% area.
BTC/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Bitcoin is consolidating near $65,000, holding above that level for a fourth consecutive session and up roughly 3.7% on the week, recovering steadily from the August 1 capitulation low near $62,235 after the Senate punted the CLARITY Act crypto market-structure bill to the fall session.
Technical Outlook
BTC closed last week above $65,000 for the first time since late July and is now pressing against a critical pivot zone near $65,000–$65,500. A hold above $63,500 keeps the recovery intact with a path toward $67,500, while a break below $61,500 would risk a deeper flush before the next leg higher.
Litecoin
Fundamental Backdrop
Litecoin is trading near $46.20, up over 1% on the session and roughly 3.3% over the past week, tracking Bitcoin’s stability above $65,000 as the broader altcoin complex firms into the US session, with the token now just below its seven-day high near $46.38.
Technical Outlook
LTC is consolidating just under its recent high, with the 200-day moving average trending higher since early June, a constructive longer-term signal. A hold above $44.50 keeps the path open toward $48.50, while a break below $42.80 would risk a retest of the $40 area on a broader crypto-market pullback.
US Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why is the Dollar mixed rather than sharply lower after Friday’s weak jobs report?
Why is the Nasdaq 100 pulling back if it just hit a record high on Friday?
Why is Gold consolidating instead of extending Friday’s rally?
Why is Bitcoin stuck near $65,000 despite the CLARITY Act delay?
US Session Summary — Monday, 10 August 2026 (Live Update)
Monday’s US session is being shaped by a market caught between two competing forces: the dovish Fed repricing triggered by Friday’s shock 23,000 non-farm payrolls contraction, which has pulled CME FedWatch’s September hike odds down to roughly 42–44% from around 67% a week earlier, and a fresh denial from Tehran that it is holding direct talks with Washington over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, even as President Trump maintains a deal is close. USD/CAD has eased to 1.3962 and USD/CHF to 0.8072, both giving back part of Friday’s post-payrolls volatility, while the Nasdaq 100 is trading a touch softer near 29,421 after Friday’s record close, as investors position for Wednesday’s CPI print, Thursday’s PPI release, and earnings from Applied Materials, Cisco and CoreWeave. In commodities, Gold is consolidating near $4,335 an ounce after Friday’s surge to a two-month high near $4,372, while Crude Oil is firmer for a second straight session near $79.30 a barrel, with Brent above $85, as a weekend tanker attack in the Hormuz strait and a claimed Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery keep the energy risk premium supported. The US 10-year Treasury yield is holding steady near 4.65% after Friday’s sharp seven-basis-point drop. In digital assets, Bitcoin is holding above $65,000 for a fourth straight session, up roughly 3.7% on the week, after the Senate punted the CLARITY Act to the fall, while Litecoin is firming toward $46.20, within reach of its own seven-day high. Highest-conviction session idea: buy Gold dips toward $4,280, targeting $4,420 — the combination of a softer US labour market, capped Fed hike odds and the metal’s own multi-week momentum is a powerful multi-driver tailwind, though a hotter-than-expected CPI print on Wednesday or a sharp de-escalation in the Hormuz standoff are genuine sources of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: USD/CAD sell rallies toward 1.4010, stop 1.4060, target 1.3880 — the Dollar’s post-payrolls softness is a genuine near-term tailwind, though the unresolved Hormuz standoff is a real source of two-way risk. USD/CHF sell rallies toward 0.8100, stop 0.8140, target 0.8020 — capped Fed hike odds are a genuine tailwind, though a hawkish CPI surprise could spark a snapback. Gold buy dips toward $4,280, stop $4,220, target $4,420 — the post-payrolls Fed repricing is a genuine tailwind, though a stronger-than-expected US inflation surprise is a real source of two-way risk. Crude Oil buy dips toward $77.50, stop $75.50, target $82.00 — the stalled Hormuz talks and weekend tanker attack are genuine tailwinds for further upside, though a swift Iran-US agreement is a real source of two-way risk. Nasdaq 100 buy dips toward 29,000, stop 28,600, target 30,000 — resilient risk appetite is a genuine tailwind for the index, though this week’s CPI, PPI and big-tech earnings are a real source of two-way risk. US 10Y yield buy dips toward 4.58%, stop 4.48%, target 4.80% — firmer oil and hawkish Fed signalling are genuine tailwinds, though a soft CPI print on Wednesday is a real source of two-way risk. BTC/USD buy dips toward $63,500, stop $61,500, target $67,500 — steady recovery momentum and receding regulatory overhang are genuine tailwinds, though BTC’s position just below its recent local high is a real source of two-way risk. Litecoin buy dips toward $44.50, stop $42.80, target $48.50 — Bitcoin’s stability and a rising 200-day moving average are genuine tailwinds, though a broader crypto-market pullback is a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are how markets position ahead of Wednesday’s CPI release and whether Iran’s denial of direct Hormuz talks reopens the same haven trade that dominated last week’s price action. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply into Wednesday’s inflation data.
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