Iran Missile Attack Rattles Asia as Kospi Craters, Hang Seng Defies the Rout Into the Fed | Asian Session – Technical Analysis | 29 July 2026
Iran Missile Attack Rattles Asia as Kospi Craters, Hang Seng Defies the Rout Into the Fed
USD/JPY · AUD/USD · Copper · Natural Gas · Hang Seng · XRP · Litecoin — live Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney coverage through the Asian session
“Iran’s intercepted missile barrage has split Asia in two — a violent, chip-led rout in Seoul and Tokyo on one side, and a defiantly bullish Hong Kong leaning on Beijing stimulus hopes on the other, with the Fed’s decision now looming as the session’s biggest swing factor.”
Wednesday’s Asian trade is dominated by the aftermath of Tuesday evening’s intercepted Iranian missile attack on US forces, which US Central Command says was fully neutralised but which has nonetheless reignited the geopolitical risk premium that had been steadily unwinding over the prior three sessions. Oil’s sharp overnight rebound — WTI up over 4% and Brent back above $87 — is rippling through regional equities: South Korea’s Kospi has plunged more than 8%, triggering the exchange’s circuit-breaker mechanism and a trading halt, as index heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix extend the AI-financing anxiety that gutted US chip stocks on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down over 2% on the same theme, while mainland China’s CSI 300 is only modestly softer. Hong Kong is the conspicuous outlier: the Hang Seng Index is up roughly 1.4% near 25,660, extending Tuesday’s gain, as investors rotate into Hong Kong- and mainland-linked names on hopes of fresh Beijing stimulus and on continued momentum in the city’s IPO pipeline following the blockbuster Zhongji Innolight listing.
In FX, the Dollar’s dominant overnight theme is the approaching FOMC decision, due at 6:00pm GMT with Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference to follow half an hour later; a hold is still the consensus call, but positioning for a hawkish surprise has crept higher over the past week. USD/JPY is consolidating just below 164.00, within sight of a fresh 40-year low, with the Bank of Japan’s own policy decision due Thursday and widely expected to be another hold. AUD/USD is choppy near 0.6975 as markets digest RBA Governor Bullock’s hawkish inflation commentary on Tuesday, which trimmed the odds of an August rate hike to around 20% even as Australia’s Q2 CPI print, due later Wednesday, is expected to show core inflation accelerating to 3.7%, comfortably above the RBA’s target band. Elsewhere, Copper is proving resilient near $6.35 a pound as tight refined supply and storm-related disruption to Chilean output offset the broader risk-off mood, while Natural Gas continues to grind lower toward $2.73 per MMBtu as US storage levels running roughly 6% above the five-year average and fading late-summer cooling demand keep the front month under pressure. In crypto, XRP is firming toward $1.08 on continued optimism around the US CLARITY Act’s progress through the Senate, and Litecoin is holding just above $47, both proving notably resilient against the equity-led risk-off tone gripping the rest of the region.
Asian Session News Flow
The stories moving USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Copper, Natural Gas, Hang Seng, XRP and Litecoin this session
Asian Session Economic Calendar — 29 July 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney trading hours (local times as noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸Overnight | Iran Ballistic Missile Attack on US Forces, Intercepted | CENTCOM confirms all missiles intercepted; WTI +4%, Brent above $87 | 🔴 CRITICAL | Primary driver of the region-wide risk-off tone and the Kospi’s circuit-breaker plunge |
| 🇰🇷Ongoing | Kospi Circuit Breaker Triggered as Chip Stocks Plunge | Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix lead an 8%+ index decline | 🔴 CRITICAL | Sets a risk-off tone across regional tech-heavy indices, spilling into Nikkei futures |
| 🇺🇸Wed, 6:00pm GMT | FOMC Rate Decision & Warsh Press Conference | Hold widely expected; hawkish-surprise odds rising on fresh oil-driven inflation risk | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key swing factor for the Dollar, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Copper and broader risk assets |
| 🇦🇺Wed, 11:30am AEST | Australia Q2 CPI | Core inflation seen accelerating to 3.7% y/y, above RBA’s 2%-3% target | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key swing factor for AUD/USD and RBA rate-path pricing into month-end |
| 🇯🇵Thu | Bank of Japan Policy Decision | Hold widely expected following last month’s 25bp hike to 1.00% | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key swing factor for USD/JPY and broader yen crosses this week |
| 🇺🇸Thu | US Q2 GDP & Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage | GDP print key for Fed’s post-meeting communication; storage seen adding to the surplus | 🟢 MEDIUM | Could reshape rate-path pricing across USD pairs and add further pressure to Natural Gas |
| 🇺🇸Wed & Thu | Microsoft, Meta, Apple & Amazon Earnings | Reports due alongside the Fed decision and Thursday’s close | 🔴 CRITICAL | Could either soothe or intensify the AI-capex concerns hitting chip stocks across Asia |
| 🇨🇦Ongoing | Chile Storm Disruption to Copper Output | Severe weather raising risk of near-term supply disruptions at major mines | 🟢 MEDIUM | Background support for Copper even as broader industrial-metal sentiment stays cautious |
Asian Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s seven key instruments
USD/JPY
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/JPY is trading near 163.65, within a whisker of a fresh 40-year low for the yen, easing slightly from Tuesday’s close near 163.75-163.85 as traders trim exposure ahead of two major central-bank events this week: today’s FOMC decision and Thursday’s Bank of Japan meeting, where the BOJ is widely expected to hold at 1.00% following last month’s hike.
Technical Outlook
Investing.com’s technical model continues to show USD/JPY in a Strong Buy posture across most timeframes, with the pair holding well above the 2024 high near 161.81 and the rising 100-day EMA band. A hold above 162.60, this trade’s entry zone on dips, keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the 165.50 target; a break below 161.70, this trade’s stop-loss level, would risk a deeper pullback toward the 160.00 area.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) today’s FOMC decision at 6:00pm GMT and Chair Warsh’s press conference; (2) Thursday’s Bank of Japan policy decision; (3) any fresh verbal intervention from Japanese authorities as the yen approaches record weakness; (4) the broader risk-off tone tied to the Iran attack and the regional chip selloff; (5) Thursday’s US Q2 GDP and core PCE inflation prints.
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AUD/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
AUD/USD is trading near 0.6975, easing modestly from Tuesday’s close as the overnight Iran-driven risk-off tone weighs on the risk-sensitive Aussie. RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s hawkish inflation commentary on Tuesday trimmed the market-implied probability of an August rate hike to around 20% from roughly 30% previously, even as Australia’s Q2 CPI report, due later Wednesday, is expected to show core inflation accelerating to 3.7% year-on-year.
Technical Outlook
The pair remains within its recent 0.6960-0.7010 range, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages sitting in close proximity, a setup that often precedes a directional resolution. A hot CPI print or a dovish Fed surprise would expose the 0.7050 target; a miss on inflation, combined with a deepening of today’s risk-off tone, would risk a slide toward the 0.6850 stop-loss area.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) Australia’s Q2 CPI report later Wednesday; (2) today’s FOMC decision and its read-through for broader Dollar demand; (3) any further escalation tied to the Iran attack and its impact on oil-driven inflation expectations; (4) iron ore and broader China-linked demand signals given Australia’s key trading relationship.
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Copper
Fundamental Backdrop
Copper futures are holding firm near $6.35 a pound, largely shrugging off the broader risk-off tone tied to the overnight Iran attack, supported by tight refined supply, severe storms disrupting output in top producer Chile, and structurally strong long-term demand from the global electrification and AI-data-centre buildout.
Technical Outlook
The daily technical signal remains a Buy, with price consolidating within the recent $6.31-$6.40 range and holding comfortably above key moving averages. A hold above the $6.20 entry zone keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the $6.65 target; a break below the $6.05 stop-loss level would risk a deeper pullback toward the $5.90 area.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) further updates on the Chilean weather disruption to mine output; (2) the pending US Section 232 decision on staggered refined-copper tariffs; (3) today’s FOMC decision and its impact on the Dollar and broader industrial-metal demand; (4) Chinese demand signals given the country’s outsized share of global consumption.
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Natural Gas
Fundamental Backdrop
Natural Gas futures are drifting toward $2.73 per MMBtu, extending a multi-week slide as US working gas inventories, running roughly 6% above their five-year seasonal average, continue to signal ample supply heading into the tail end of the summer cooling season. Rising domestic production forecasts are compounding the bearish backdrop.
Technical Outlook
The daily and weekly technical signal remains a Strong Sell, with price trading well below its recent range highs. A failure to hold below the $2.85 entry zone on rallies keeps the bearish structure intact and exposes the $2.50 target; a break back above the $2.95 stop-loss level would risk a short-covering bounce toward the $3.10 area.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) Thursday’s weekly EIA natural gas storage report; (2) evolving weather forecasts for the final weeks of peak US cooling demand; (3) any fresh LNG export or production data; (4) the broader risk-off tone tied to the Iran attack, which has so far had limited spillover into natural gas relative to crude oil.
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Hang Seng
Fundamental Backdrop
The Hang Seng Index is trading roughly 1.4% higher near 25,660, extending Tuesday’s gain and standing out sharply against a regional backdrop dominated by the Kospi’s circuit-breaker plunge and a steep decline in Tokyo. Bargain-hunters are rotating into Hong Kong- and mainland-linked names on hopes of fresh Beijing stimulus measures, while the city’s active IPO pipeline, headlined by the blockbuster Zhongji Innolight listing, continues to draw international capital.
Technical Outlook
The index is extending a multi-session winning streak and pressing toward the upper end of its recent range, with technical momentum still constructive above the 25,000 psychological level. A hold above the 25,300 entry zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the 26,300 target; a break below the 25,050 stop-loss level would risk a deeper pullback toward the 24,700 area.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any fresh signals of Beijing stimulus or supportive policy measures; (2) continued momentum in Hong Kong’s IPO pipeline, including the pending Shein listing; (3) spillover risk from the regional chip-stock rout given Hong Kong’s own technology-heavy constituents; (4) today’s FOMC decision and its impact on broader risk appetite.
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XRP/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
XRP is trading near $1.08, up close to 2% on the session and proving notably resilient against the broader equity-market rout tied to the chip selloff and the overnight Iran headlines. Continued optimism around the US CLARITY Act’s progress through the Senate, which could see XRP classified as a digital commodity under CFTC jurisdiction, is underpinning sentiment, alongside steady on-chain wallet growth.
Technical Outlook
XRP continues to hold above the closely watched $1.00 psychological support level, with resistance seen near $1.20. A hold above the $1.00 entry zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the $1.22 target; a break below the $0.94 stop-loss level would risk a deeper pullback toward the $0.85 area.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) further progress on the CLARITY Act through the US Senate; (2) broader Bitcoin price action as it defends the $64,000 area into the Fed decision; (3) any fresh regulatory developments from the SEC or CFTC; (4) whale wallet accumulation trends and exchange-reserve flows.
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Litecoin
Fundamental Backdrop
Litecoin is trading near $47.20, holding steady just under the $48 resistance area and proving resilient against the broader equity-market selloff tied to the chip rout and the Iran headlines. The asset remains within a well-defined $42-$48 consolidation range that has held for several weeks amid otherwise elevated crypto-market volatility.
Technical Outlook
A confirmed breakout above the $48 resistance level on rising volume would open the door to a move toward the $53-$56 zone; a failure to hold the $45.50 entry area on dips risks a slide back toward the $42 lower boundary of the range. The setup favours patience for a decisive break in either direction.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) broader Bitcoin price action into the Fed decision; (2) any fresh developments tied to US Treasury sanctions or regulatory scrutiny of privacy-linked features; (3) Litecoin Foundation updates on payment integrations; (4) the broader risk-off tone tied to the Iran attack and its spillover, or lack thereof, into digital assets.
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Asian Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Asian Session Summary — Wednesday, 29 July 2026 (Live Update)
Wednesday’s Asian session is defined by the fallout from Tuesday evening’s intercepted Iranian missile attack on US forces, which has reignited a geopolitical risk premium that had been steadily unwinding over the prior three sessions and split the region’s equity markets sharply in two; South Korea’s Kospi has plunged more than 8%, triggering exchange-wide circuit breakers as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix extend the same AI-financing anxiety that gutted US chip stocks Tuesday, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down over 2% on the same theme, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is the session’s conspicuous outlier, up roughly 1.4% near 25,660 as bargain-hunters lean into Beijing stimulus bets and a buoyant IPO pipeline. In FX, USD/JPY is consolidating just below 164.00 within sight of a fresh 40-year low for the yen as traders brace for today’s FOMC decision and Thursday’s Bank of Japan meeting, while AUD/USD is choppy near 0.6975 ahead of Australia’s Q2 CPI print following RBA Governor Bullock’s hawkish tone this week. Commodities are diverging: Copper is holding firm near $6.35 a pound on tight supply and Chilean weather disruption even as the broader risk-off mood weighs on growth-sensitive assets, while Natural Gas continues to grind lower toward $2.73 per MMBtu on bloated US storage and fading late-summer cooling demand. Digital assets are proving unusually resilient against the equity-market carnage, with XRP firming toward $1.08 on CLARITY Act optimism and Litecoin holding just above $47 within its recent consolidation range. Highest-conviction session idea: buy Hang Seng dips toward 25,300, targeting 26,300 — the combination of Beijing stimulus hopes, a resilient IPO pipeline and a market that is decisively decoupling from the regional chip-stock carnage is a powerful, multi-pronged tailwind, though a sharp further escalation of the Iran conflict or a hawkish Fed surprise later today are real risks that could reverse the move sharply and without warning.
For the individual instruments: USD/JPY buy dips toward 162.60, stop 161.70, target 165.50 — the yen’s structural weakness into the Fed and BOJ decisions is a genuine tailwind, though verbal intervention risk from Japanese authorities remains a real source of two-way risk. AUD/USD buy dips toward 0.6910, stop 0.6850, target 0.7050 — a hot Q2 CPI print would be a genuine tailwind for the Aussie, though the overnight Iran-driven risk-off tone and today’s Fed decision are real sources of two-way risk. Copper buy dips toward $6.20, stop $6.05, target $6.65 — tight refined supply and Chilean weather disruption are genuine tailwinds, though a deepening of the broader risk-off tone is a real headwind for the bullish case. Natural Gas sell rallies toward $2.85, stop $2.95, target $2.50 — bloated US storage and fading cooling demand are genuine headwinds, though a sharp escalation in the Iran conflict spilling into broader energy markets remains a real source of two-way risk. Hang Seng buy dips toward 25,300, stop 25,050, target 26,300 — Beijing stimulus hopes and a resilient IPO pipeline are genuine tailwinds, though spillover risk from the regional chip-stock rout is a real headwind for the bullish case. XRP/USD buy dips toward $1.00, stop $0.94, target $1.22 — continued CLARITY Act progress is a genuine tailwind, though a sharp deepening of the broader risk-off tone remains a real source of two-way risk. Litecoin buy dips toward $45.50, stop $43.50, target $53.00 — a confirmed breakout above $48 would be a genuine tailwind, though a failure to hold the range is a real headwind for the bullish case. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are whether the Iran conflict escalates further or de-escalates, today’s FOMC decision and Chair Warsh’s press conference, Australia’s Q2 CPI print, Thursday’s Bank of Japan decision, and Wednesday and Thursday’s Big Tech earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. Size positions accordingly, and note that the geopolitical and macro backdrop remains exceptionally fluid and carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply intraday.
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