Dollar Rebounds and the Yen tests Below 158 as Hormuz Tensions Revive Ahead of Tuesday’s RBA Decision |Technical Analysis – Asian Session | 10-08-2026
Dollar Rebounds and the Yen tests Below 158 as Hormuz Tensions Revive Ahead of Tuesday’s RBA Decision
USD/JPY · AUD/USD · Copper · Corn · Hang Seng · Solana · XRP — live coverage through the Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney trading day
“A dollar that was left for dead on Friday afternoon can still find its feet in Tokyo on Monday morning — geopolitics doesn’t wait for the payrolls desk to finish its coffee.”
Monday’s Asian session opens with the US Dollar clawing back part of Friday’s post-payrolls losses as renewed tensions between Washington and Tehran over transit rights through the Strait of Hormuz revive demand for the currency’s residual haven appeal, even as traders continue to price a reduced probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike following the shock 23,000 non-farm payrolls contraction. That dollar rebound is showing up most clearly in USD/JPY, which has pushed back above the 158.00 level after Japan’s Ministry of Finance reported the country’s first Current Account deficit in close to eighteen months, a fiscal signal that is undermining the Yen even against a Bank of Japan July Summary of Opinions that leaned somewhat hawkish. Technically, spot price is capped near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s sharp slide from its four-decade high at 158.55, with the 50% and 61.8% levels at 159.61 and 160.66 marking the next resistance tiers, while support sits at 157.26 ahead of a structural floor near 155.17. AUD/USD, meanwhile, is trading defensively near 0.7050 as sellers grow hesitant to press the pair lower ahead of Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia Cash Rate decision, the centrepiece of a two-day Monetary Policy Board meeting that runs through Wednesday’s statement.
Across commodities, Copper is retracing from Friday’s fresh record high near $6.77 a pound to around $6.59, a pullback that looks technical rather than fundamental given that the Democratic Republic of Congo’s ban on copper concentrate exports and the multi-year suspension at part of Codelco’s flagship El Teniente mine continue to tighten global supply, alongside robust US import flows ahead of possible tariff action. Corn is edging up toward $4.42 a bushel as firmer crude oil, tied to the same Hormuz-linked geopolitical backdrop, lifts demand expectations for corn-based ethanol, though the advance remains capped ahead of Wednesday’s USDA WASDE report, which will deliver the season’s first field-survey-based yield estimate against a backdrop of record production forecasts. In equities, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is extending its recent advance, up close to 0.8% near 25,873, as cooler-than-expected Chinese consumer inflation data for July and the reduced odds of near-term Fed tightening combine to support regional risk appetite, led by gains in Tencent, AIA and Wuxi Biologics. In digital assets, Solana is climbing toward the $76 area as on-chain data points to sustained whale accumulation via a large TWAP buy programme, alongside a governance proposal that could increase daily SOL burns more than ten-fold, while XRP is holding just above the $1.00 psychological floor near $1.04 after the US Senate left for its August recess without filing a cloture motion on the CLARITY Act, pushing the crypto market-structure bill toward a September vote at the earliest.
Asian Session News Flow
The stories moving USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Copper, Corn, Hang Seng, Solana and XRP this session
Asian Session Economic Calendar — 10 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney trading day (times in HKT/SGT, GMT+8)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵Ongoing | Japan Current Account (June) — Actual | First deficit in nearly 18 months | 🔴 CRITICAL | Undermining the Yen, pushing USD/JPY back above 158.00 |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | Renewed US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Tensions | Transit-rights standoff resurfaces over the weekend | 🔴 CRITICAL | Reviving broad Dollar haven demand off Friday’s lows |
| 🇯🇵This Week | BoJ July Summary of Opinions | Somewhat hawkish tone, offset by weak fiscal data | 🟢 MEDIUM | Limiting, but not reversing, the Yen’s fiscal-driven weakness |
| 🇦🇺Tomorrow | RBA Cash Rate Decision & Statement (Day 2 of Meeting) | Board meets 10–11 August; decision Wed 2:30pm AEST | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key event risk keeping AUD/USD sellers hesitant near 0.7050 |
| 🇩🇪Ongoing | DR Congo Copper Concentrate Export Ban / Codelco Outage | El Teniente suspension could run up to two years | 🟢 MEDIUM | Structural support keeping Copper near record levels |
| 🇺🇸Wed 12 Aug | USDA WASDE Report | First field-survey yield estimate; StoneX sees record 16.16bn bu harvest | 🔴 CRITICAL | Capping Corn’s rebound ahead of the release |
| 🇨🇳Ongoing | China July CPI — Actual | +0.5% y/y vs. +1.0% in June, six-month low | 🟢 MEDIUM | Adding a domestic tailwind to the Hang Seng’s advance |
| ₿This Week | US Senate Leaves for Recess Without CLARITY Act Vote | Cloture motion not filed; bill pushed toward September | 🟢 MEDIUM | Weighing on XRP even as Korean bid support cushions the pair |
Asian Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s seven key instruments
USD/JPY
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/JPY has pushed back above 158.00 after Japan’s Ministry of Finance reported the country’s first Current Account deficit in almost a year and a half, a fiscal red flag that is undermining the Yen even against a somewhat hawkish Bank of Japan July Summary of Opinions. The broader US Dollar rebound, driven by revived US-Iran Hormuz tensions, is compounding the move.
Technical Outlook
Spot price is capping out near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the sharp slide from its four-decade high, at 158.55, with the MACD in positive territory hinting at improving short-term momentum on the 4-hour chart. A hold above 157.85 that clears 158.55 would open the way toward the 50% retracement at 159.61 and the 61.8% level at 160.66, while a break back below 157.26 would risk a deeper slide toward the structural floor near 155.17.
AUD/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
AUD/USD is trading defensively near 0.7050 as the US Dollar recovers from its post-NFP slump on renewed US-Iran Hormuz tensions, checking the pair’s upside. Sellers, however, remain hesitant to press the advantage with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s two-day Monetary Policy Board meeting underway, concluding with Wednesday’s 2:30pm AEST decision.
Technical Outlook
The pair is consolidating in a narrow range as position-squaring dominates ahead of the RBA event risk. A failed retest of 0.7085 that fails to hold would keep the mild downside bias intact and open a path toward 0.6980, while a decisive break above 0.7085 would risk a squeeze back toward the 0.7130 area, particularly if the RBA statement leans hawkish.
Copper
Fundamental Backdrop
Copper is pulling back to near $6.59 a pound after touching a fresh record above $6.77 on Friday, a retracement that looks more like profit-taking than a change in the underlying story. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s ban on copper concentrate exports and the suspension of part of Codelco’s flagship El Teniente mine, which could last up to two years, continue to tighten global supply.
Technical Outlook
The pullback from record territory has so far respected the broader uptrend, with strong US import flows — over 200,000 tons arrived at US ports in July alone, the largest monthly inflow in over a year — underpinning the structural bid. A hold above $6.45 would keep the path open toward a retest of $6.77–$6.80, while a break below $6.28 would risk a deeper corrective slide.
Corn
Fundamental Backdrop
Corn is edging up toward $4.42 a bushel as firmer, Hormuz-linked crude oil prices lift demand expectations for corn-based ethanol. The rebound remains capped by a bearish supply backdrop: StoneX projects a record 2026 US harvest of 16.16 billion bushels, and the USDA has trimmed its good-to-excellent crop condition rating for a third consecutive week without denting the broader oversupply narrative.
Technical Outlook
Wednesday’s USDA WASDE report, the season’s first field-survey-based yield estimate, is the decisive catalyst traders are positioning around. A failed rally toward $4.46 that fails to hold would keep the broader downtrend intact and open a path back toward $4.28, while a WASDE surprise that trims yield expectations could fuel a squeeze back toward $4.53.
Hang Seng
Fundamental Backdrop
The Hang Seng is up close to 0.8% near 25,873, tracking broader Asian gains after Friday’s weak US payrolls report reduced expectations of an imminent Fed rate hike, lowering Treasury yields and lifting appetite for growth-sensitive Hong Kong tech names. China’s annual inflation eased to 0.5% in July from 1.0% in June, its lowest reading in six months, adding a domestic tailwind alongside gains in Tencent, AIA, Wuxi Biologics, Xiaomi and Genscript Biotech.
Technical Outlook
The index is building on last week’s advance, which included an intraday push to 26,009 on 3 August. A hold above 25,700 on any pullback would keep the near-term uptrend intact and open a path back toward that recent high and beyond toward 26,400, while a break below 25,450 would risk a deeper corrective slide.
Solana (SOL/USD)
Fundamental Backdrop
Solana is climbing toward $76 after on-chain analysts identified a large wallet running a TWAP programme to accumulate roughly 500,000 SOL, having already bought close to 186,000 tokens. The move coincides with active governance debate on proposals SIMD-0550 and SIMD-0553, which could increase daily SOL burns from roughly 650 to as many as 9,000 tokens, with the discussion window closing on 22 August.
Technical Outlook
SOL remains below its 20-day, 50-day and 100-day EMAs, making the $74.50–$75.50 band the key reclaim zone. A daily close above that band would improve the short-term outlook and open a path toward the 100-day EMA near $78.80, while a loss of the $73.30 area would put the recent swing low near $72.30 back in focus.
XRP/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
XRP is holding just above the $1.00 psychological level near $1.038 after the US Senate left for its August recess without filing a cloture motion on the CLARITY Act, removing a key near-term regulatory catalyst and pushing the bill toward a September vote at the earliest, with Polymarket now giving it only a 14% chance of passing in 2026. Steady South Korean bid support is helping cushion the pair’s downside.
Technical Outlook
XRP remains inside a falling channel that has capped every rally since mid-May, having briefly tested the $1.01 area last week before recovering. A failed rally toward $1.070 that fails to break the channel’s upper boundary would keep the downtrend intact and open a path back toward $0.960, while a decisive close above $1.10 would risk a squeeze that challenges the channel structure itself.
Asian Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why is the US Dollar rebounding after Friday’s weak jobs report?
Why is USD/JPY pushing back above 158 despite a somewhat hawkish BoJ tone?
Why is the RBA meeting this week such a big risk event for AUD/USD?
Why is XRP struggling to hold above $1 despite positive Ripple news flow?
Asian Session Summary — Monday, 10 August 2026 (Live Update)
Monday’s Asian session is being shaped by a Dollar that is clawing back part of Friday’s post-payrolls losses as US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz resurface, reviving haven demand even as CME FedWatch continues to price a reduced probability of a September Fed rate hike following the shock 23,000 non-farm payrolls contraction. USD/JPY has been the session’s standout FX mover, pushing back above 158.00 after Japan posted its first Current Account deficit in close to eighteen months, a fiscal signal strong enough to outweigh a somewhat hawkish BoJ July Summary of Opinions. AUD/USD is trading defensively near 0.7050, with sellers hesitant to press their advantage ahead of Tuesday and Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board meeting and Cash Rate decision. In commodities, Copper is retracing to near $6.59 a pound after Friday’s fresh record high close to $6.77, a pullback that looks like profit-taking rather than a change in the underlying supply-crunch story tied to the DR Congo’s export ban and Codelco’s extended mine suspension, while Corn is edging up toward $4.42 a bushel on firmer, Hormuz-linked crude oil prices even as Wednesday’s pivotal USDA WASDE report caps the advance. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is extending its recent run, up close to 0.8% near 25,873, on cooler Chinese inflation data and fading Fed hike odds, while in digital assets, Solana is climbing toward $76 on sustained whale accumulation and a proposed increase to daily token burns, and XRP is holding just above the psychologically important $1.00 level near $1.04 despite the Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act before recess. Highest-conviction session idea: buy USD/JPY dips toward 157.85, targeting 159.60 — the combination of Japan’s fresh fiscal deficit, revived Hormuz-driven Dollar demand and improving short-term momentum on the 4-hour chart is a powerful multi-driver tailwind, though a sharp de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz standoff or verbal intervention from Japanese authorities are genuine sources of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: USD/JPY buy dips toward 157.85, stop 157.15, target 159.60 — Japan’s fresh fiscal deficit and the broader Dollar rebound are genuine tailwinds, though verbal intervention risk from Japanese authorities is a real source of two-way risk. AUD/USD sell rallies toward 0.7085, stop 0.7130, target 0.6980 — the Dollar rebound is a genuine near-term tailwind, though a hawkish RBA statement this week is a real source of two-way risk. Copper buy dips toward $6.45, stop $6.28, target $6.80 — the DR Congo export ban and Codelco’s mine suspension are genuine structural tailwinds, though a resolution to either supply disruption is a real source of two-way risk. Corn sell rallies toward $4.46, stop $4.53, target $4.28 — expectations of a record US harvest are a genuine tailwind for further downside, though a bullish surprise in Wednesday’s WASDE yield estimate is a real source of two-way risk. Hang Seng buy dips toward 25,700, stop 25,450, target 26,400 — cooler China inflation and fading Fed hike odds are genuine tailwinds, though renewed Hormuz-linked risk aversion is a real source of two-way risk. Solana buy dips toward $73.50, stop $71.20, target $79.00 — sustained whale accumulation and the proposed burn increase are genuine tailwinds, though SOL’s position below its key moving averages is a real source of two-way risk. XRP/USD sell rallies toward $1.070, stop $1.105, target $0.960 — the stalled CLARITY Act is a genuine tailwind for further downside, though steady South Korean bid support is a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are how durably the Dollar’s Hormuz-driven rebound holds up and how the market positions into Tuesday and Wednesday’s RBA decision. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply into the London and New York handover.
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