Amazon’s AI Surge and a Rate-Path Standoff Define the US Session | Technical Analysis – US Session | 31 July 2026
Amazon’s AI Surge and a Rate-Path Standoff Define the US Session
USD/CAD · USD/CHF · Gold · Crude Oil · Dow Jones · US 10Y · BTC/USD · XRP — live New York trading session coverage
A tech-earnings split, a rate-path standoff at the Fed, and a fast-moving Iran headline cycle are doing most of the driving as New York comes online.
The Federal Reserve’s Wednesday decision continues to define the macro backdrop heading into the weekend. Policymakers held the benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%, but three regional presidents — Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari and Dallas’s Lorie Logan — dissented in favor of a hike, and Chair Kevin Warsh declined to offer clear forward guidance at the press conference. Thursday’s core PCE print came in cooler than feared, rising just 0.1% on the month and holding at 3.3% year-over-year, yet Treasury yields have barely budged: the 10-year is trading near 4.67% and the 30-year sits at its highest level since 2007, as markets weigh persistent above-target inflation, fiscal pressure and roughly 63% odds of a September hike against the softer print. This morning’s Employment Cost Index rose 0.9% quarter-over-quarter, matching the prior reading and reinforcing the picture of sticky compensation growth that has kept the long end of the curve elevated.
Geopolitics is the session’s other major swing factor. The US carried out fresh airstrikes on Iranian targets overnight in retaliation for attacks on American assets in the region, and while reports of a pause in strikes have since cooled the most acute risk premium, the Strait of Hormuz reportedly remains closed, keeping energy markets on edge. WTI crude, which rallied from the low $70s to a recent high near $87.80, is now carving out a head-and-shoulders top with a neckline near $80.00 — a pattern traders are watching closely for confirmation. Gold has reclaimed the $4,100 handle on the combination of safe-haven demand and a wobbly Dollar, while the currency picture is mixed: USD/CHF is slipping as the Franc draws haven bids, and USD/CAD is firming toward 1.4050 as the Loonie underperforms ahead of today’s Canadian GDP release.
Equities are the session’s brightest spot. Amazon shares are up double digits after posting AWS revenue growth of 37% — its fastest pace since 2021 — and raising its 2026 capex guidance to as much as $220 billion, while Apple has fallen sharply despite beating on revenue and iPhone sales, dragged down by a soft fourth-quarter sales outlook and renewed supply-chain concerns. The Dow is building on Thursday’s 614-point, 1.2% surge, chip stocks are extending their rebound after South Korea’s Kospi posted an 18% single-day surge on SK Hynix’s results, and this morning’s Chicago PMI printed at 57.6, comfortably ahead of the prior 56.7 reading, with the final University of Michigan sentiment read still to come. Crypto is the session’s clearest divergence: Bitcoin has slipped from its $64,724 open toward the $63,600 area after Strategy posted an $8.22 billion second-quarter loss on its Bitcoin holdings, while XRP is bucking the trend and pushing toward $1.09 on steady ETF and CLARITY Act-related optimism.
US Session News Feed
The stories moving markets right now, sourced from Reuters, Bloomberg, Investing.com and FXStreet
US Session Economic Calendar — 31 July 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the New York trading day (times in ET as noted)
| Time (ET) | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸Overnight | Fresh US Airstrikes on Iran, Reports of a Pause | Retaliatory strikes followed by unconfirmed reports of a pause; Strait of Hormuz reportedly still closed | 🔴 CRITICAL | Primary driver of the overnight moves in oil, gold and havens |
| 🇺🇸8:30 AM | Employment Cost Index (Q2) | Rose 0.9% q/q, matching the prior quarter’s reading | 🔴 CRITICAL | Reinforces the sticky-wage-growth backdrop keeping long-end yields elevated |
| 🇺🇸Pre-Market | Amazon & Apple Q2 Earnings Reaction | AWS grew 37% y/y; Apple beat estimates but guided softer on Q4 sales | 🔴 CRITICAL | The split reaction is the single biggest driver of today’s Dow and Nasdaq moves |
| 🇺🇸9:45 AM | Chicago PMI (July) | Printed at 57.6, ahead of June’s 56.7 reading | 🟢 MEDIUM | Adds to a resilient run of US data this morning |
| 🇺🇸10:00 AM | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final, July) | Preliminary reading was 54.4; final expected to confirm | 🟢 MEDIUM | Watch the 1-year inflation expectations component for Fed-relevant signal |
| 🇩🇪Ongoing | 30-Year Treasury Yield at Highest Since 2007 | Long end of the curve remains elevated despite the softer PCE print | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key cross-asset pressure point for equities, gold and the Dollar |
| 🇨🇦8:30 AM | Canada GDP (May, Monthly) | Markets await fresh insight into domestic momentum | 🟢 MEDIUM | Key swing factor for USD/CAD into the weekend |
| 📈Ongoing | Strategy (MSTR) $8.22B Q2 Loss Digests | Loss driven by the mark-to-market impact of Bitcoin’s pullback | 🟢 MEDIUM | Weighing on Bitcoin sentiment even as XRP outperforms |
| ⛽️1:00 PM | Baker Hughes US Rig Count | Weekly gauge of US drilling activity | ⚪ LOW | Secondary supply-side data point for crude oil into the weekend |
| 📅All Session | Month-End Portfolio and Index Rebalancing Flows | Friday’s date-end flows can add intraday volatility across asset classes | 🟢 MEDIUM | Background factor for FX, equities and rates into the weekly close |
US Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s eight key instruments
USD/CAD
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CAD is trading near 1.4040, its firmest level in roughly a month, as the Canadian Dollar underperforms ahead of today’s monthly GDP release. The move comes even as broader Dollar sentiment is mixed, underscoring that this is primarily a CAD-specific story tied to soft domestic momentum and dovish Bank of Canada expectations rather than broad-based US Dollar strength.
Technical Outlook
The pair has cleared the 1.3990-1.4010 congestion zone that had capped it earlier in the week, with momentum turning constructive. A hold above the 1.3990 entry zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the 1.4150 target; a break below the 1.3930 stop-loss level would risk a slide back toward the 1.3850 area, particularly on a strong Canadian GDP surprise.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) today’s Canadian GDP print and its read-through for Bank of Canada policy; (2) any fresh headlines on the Iran conflict and their impact on oil-linked CAD sentiment; (3) the US Employment Cost Index and Chicago PMI’s influence on broad Dollar positioning; (4) month-end flows given Friday’s date.
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USD/CHF
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CHF is sliding toward 0.8121 as the Swiss Franc draws classic haven demand tied to the overnight Iran airstrikes and the still-closed Strait of Hormuz. The pair’s weakness stands in contrast to the firmer USD/CAD move, illustrating how today’s Dollar picture is being shaped more by safe-haven positioning than by a single broad-based theme.
Technical Outlook
The pair has broken below the 0.8140-0.8160 support band that had held for much of the week, with momentum indicators turning negative without yet reaching oversold territory. A failure to reclaim the 0.8165 sell-rally zone keeps the bearish structure intact and exposes the 0.7980 target; a break back above the 0.8210 stop-loss level would risk a squeeze back toward the 0.8260 area.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any confirmation or denial of a sustained pause in the Iran strikes; (2) Swiss National Bank commentary reacting to renewed franc strength; (3) the US Employment Cost Index and Chicago PMI’s influence on broad Dollar positioning; (4) month-end flows given Friday’s date.
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Gold
Fundamental Backdrop
Gold has reclaimed the psychologically important $4,100 level, supported by haven demand tied to the overnight Iran airstrikes and a wobbly Dollar against several majors. Markets are still pricing in roughly a 63% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, a factor that continues to cap the scale of gold’s advance even as geopolitical risk provides a fresh tailwind.
Technical Outlook
The metal has cleared the $4,030-$4,065 support band that had capped its recovery earlier in the week, with momentum turning constructive on the daily chart. A hold above the $4,055 entry zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the $4,230 target; a break below the $3,995 stop-loss level would risk a slide back toward the $3,920 support zone.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any confirmation or escalation of the Iran conflict over the weekend; (2) the final University of Michigan inflation-expectations component due at 10:00 ET; (3) broad Dollar direction into the weekly close; (4) month-end portfolio rebalancing flows.
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Crude Oil (WTI)
Fundamental Backdrop
WTI crude is consolidating near $84.75 after reports of a pause in overnight US strikes on Iran cooled the most acute geopolitical risk premium, even as the Strait of Hormuz reportedly remains closed. Having rallied from the low $70s to a recent high near $87.80 on escalating Middle East tensions, the market is now digesting whether the immediate supply-disruption threat has peaked.
Technical Outlook
The daily chart is forming a classic head-and-shoulders reversal pattern, with a left shoulder in mid-to-late July, a head near $87.80, and a right shoulder that has completed just below $85. The neckline runs along the $80.00 support zone; a confirmed close below that level would validate the pattern and open a measured-move target near $72.00, while a hold above $86.50 on any rally attempt would need to be respected as a risk to the bearish view given the still-live Iran headline risk.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any confirmation or breakdown of the reported pause in Iran strikes; (2) status updates on the Strait of Hormuz; (3) this afternoon’s Baker Hughes US rig count; (4) month-end positioning flows across the energy complex.
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Dow Jones
Fundamental Backdrop
The Dow is building on Thursday’s 614-point, 1.2% surge to close at 52,208.06, extending gains as Amazon’s blowout earnings and a broad chip-stock rebound offset Apple’s post-earnings slide. Chicago PMI printed at 57.6 this morning, ahead of the prior 56.7 reading, adding to a resilient run of US data even as long-end Treasury yields remain elevated.
Technical Outlook
The index has cleared the 52,100-52,300 resistance band that had capped it earlier in the week, with momentum turning constructive without yet reaching overbought territory. A hold above the 51,900 entry zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the 53,200 target; a break below the 51,500 stop-loss level would risk a slide back toward the 51,000 area, particularly on any fresh Iran-related risk-off headline.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) continued reaction to Amazon and Apple’s earnings across the broader tech and consumer complex; (2) the final University of Michigan sentiment read at 10:00 ET; (3) any escalation in the Iran conflict; (4) month-end index rebalancing flows into the close.
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US 10Y Yield
Fundamental Backdrop
The 10-year Treasury yield is holding near 4.67%, essentially flat on the day but still close to cycle highs, while the 30-year sits at its highest level since 2007. This persistence is notable given Thursday’s cooler-than-expected core PCE print, and reflects markets weighing sticky above-target inflation, fiscal pressure and roughly 63% odds of a September Fed hike against the softer inflation data.
Technical Outlook
Yields have held above the 4.58%-4.65% support band that has contained pullbacks over the past two weeks, with the broader trend remaining higher. A hold above the 4.58% entry zone on dips keeps the bullish-yield structure intact and exposes the 4.85% target; a break below the 4.48% stop-loss level would risk a deeper reversal toward 4.35%, particularly on a dovish surprise from Fed speakers.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) this morning’s Employment Cost Index and its wage-pressure read-through; (2) the final University of Michigan inflation-expectations component; (3) any Fed speaker commentary reacting to Wednesday’s dissents; (4) month-end duration-buying flows that can temporarily cap yields into the close.
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BTC/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Bitcoin has slipped from its $64,724 open toward the $63,600 area this morning after Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) reported an $8.22 billion second-quarter net loss, driven by the mark-to-market impact of Bitcoin’s recent pullback on its balance sheet. The move follows a week in which spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a modest net inflow, the smallest monthly total since May and June’s larger outflows.
Technical Outlook
Bitcoin remains inside the broad $62,000-$66,000 range that has contained price action since mid-July, with today’s pullback testing the lower half of that band without breaking key support. A hold above the $62,500 entry zone on dips keeps the medium-term structure intact and exposes the $68,500 target; a break below the $60,800 stop-loss level would risk a retest of the recent two-year-low area.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) further large-holder earnings disclosures and any related forced-selling pressure; (2) net spot Bitcoin ETF flow data; (3) any fresh Iran-related risk-off headline weighing on broader risk appetite; (4) month-end positioning into the weekly close.
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XRP/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
XRP is trading near $1.085, up around 1.4% on the session and diverging positively from Bitcoin’s pullback. The move is being supported by steady spot XRP ETF activity and continued attention on the proposed CLARITY Act, which market participants see as a potential positive regulatory catalyst for XRP’s institutional adoption.
Technical Outlook
XRP has held above the $1.00-$1.05 support band that contained several pullback attempts over the past month, with relative strength versus Bitcoin improving. A hold above the $1.03 entry zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the $1.20 target; a break below the $0.97 stop-loss level would risk a slide back toward the $0.90 area.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any legislative developments tied to the CLARITY Act; (2) net spot XRP ETF flow data; (3) broader crypto risk sentiment given Bitcoin’s earnings-driven wobble; (4) month-end positioning into the weekly close.
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US Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why did Amazon jump and Apple fall on the same earnings day?
Why are Treasury yields near multi-year highs even though the Fed held rates and inflation cooled?
Is the reported pause in Iran strikes enough to reverse oil’s rally?
Why is XRP outperforming Bitcoin today?
US Session Summary — Friday, 31 July 2026 (Live Update)
Friday’s US session is being shaped by a tech-earnings split, a rate-path standoff at the Fed, and a fast-moving Iran headline cycle. The Dow is building on Thursday’s 614-point, 1.2% surge, extending gains near 52,406 as Amazon’s blowout AWS-driven earnings offset a sharp slide in Apple after its guidance missed expectations, while chip stocks continue to rebound following South Korea’s 18% single-day Kospi surge. Treasury yields remain elevated despite Thursday’s cooler core PCE print, with the 10-year near 4.67% and the 30-year at its highest level since 2007, as markets continue to digest Wednesday’s Fed hold, three hawkish dissents, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s lack of forward guidance, reinforced by this morning’s in-line 0.9% Employment Cost Index print. Overnight, fresh US airstrikes on Iranian targets briefly lifted oil and gold before reports of a pause cooled the immediate premium, though the Strait of Hormuz reportedly remains closed; WTI crude is consolidating near $84.75 inside a developing head-and-shoulders top, while gold has reclaimed the $4,100 handle on haven demand. The Dollar picture is mixed, with USD/CAD firming toward 1.4040 into today’s Canadian GDP release and USD/CHF slipping toward 0.8121 as the Franc draws bids. Crypto is diverging sharply, with Bitcoin slipping toward $64,150 after Strategy’s $8.22 billion Q2 loss while XRP pushes higher near $1.085. Highest-conviction session idea: buy Dow Jones dips toward 51,900, targeting 53,200 — the combination of Amazon’s AI-driven earnings beat, a broadening chip-stock rebound, and this morning’s resilient Chicago PMI print make this the cleanest multi-driver setup of the session, though a fresh escalation in the Iran conflict or a hawkish Fed-speaker headline are genuine two-sided risks.
For the individual instruments: USD/CAD buy dips toward 1.3990, stop 1.3930, target 1.4150 — the CAD-specific softness into today’s GDP print is a genuine tailwind, though a strong Canadian data surprise is a real source of two-way risk. USD/CHF sell rallies toward 0.8165, stop 0.8210, target 0.7980 — the Franc’s haven bid tied to the Iran headlines is genuine, though a confirmed and sustained pause in strikes would remove much of that support. Gold buy dips toward $4,055, stop $3,995, target $4,230 — the haven-demand and Dollar-wobble tailwinds are genuine, though elevated Fed-hike odds are a real headwind capping the scale of gains. Crude Oil sell rallies toward $86.50, stop $88.20, target $80.00 — the head-and-shoulders reversal setup is technically well-formed, though a genuine escalation in the Iran conflict is a real source of sharp two-way risk. Dow Jones buy dips toward 51,900, stop 51,500, target 53,200 — the earnings and chip-rebound tailwinds are genuine, though elevated long-end yields remain a real offsetting headwind for equity valuations. US 10Y buy yield dips toward 4.58%, stop 4.48%, target 4.85% — the sticky-inflation and Fed-uncertainty tailwinds are genuine, though a dovish Fed-speaker surprise would undercut the case. BTC/USD buy dips toward $62,500, stop $60,800, target $68,500 — the pullback looks earnings-specific rather than structural, though further large-holder selling pressure is a real near-term risk. XRP/USD buy dips toward $1.03, stop $0.97, target $1.20 — the ETF and CLARITY Act tailwinds are genuine, though a broader crypto risk-off move would likely still drag XRP lower alongside Bitcoin. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are the final University of Michigan sentiment and inflation-expectations read at 10:00 ET, today’s Canadian GDP print, any confirmation of a sustained Iran strike pause, and month-end portfolio rebalancing flows into the weekly close. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk around any fresh Middle East headline that could reshape sentiment sharply intraday.
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