Hormuz Attacks Resume, the FTSE 100 Slips to a One-Week Low, and Bund Yields Climb as Europe Braces for US CPI | Technical Analysis – European Session | 12-08-2026
Hormuz Attacks Resume, the FTSE 100 Slips to a One-Week Low, and Bund Yields Climb as Europe Braces for US CPI
EUR/USD · GBP/USD · Silver · Crude Oil · FTSE 100 · EU 20Y Yield · Litecoin · ETH/USD — live coverage through the European trading day
“Fresh Hormuz attacks have done what diplomacy could not — put a firm floor under oil and a lid on risk appetite, with every European asset now simply waiting out the clock to this afternoon’s US CPI.”
Wednesday’s European session carries a distinctly defensive tone. Overnight attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, confirmed separately by both US officials and Yemen’s Houthi movement, have undercut the cautious optimism that built earlier in the week around a potential US-Iran arrangement. Iran’s own security establishment has now stated plainly that the strait stays closed until Washington meets Tehran’s conditions, which keeps a geopolitical risk premium baked into crude oil and, by extension, into European inflation expectations just as the region heads into the most important data point of the week.
Equity markets are reflecting that caution directly: the FTSE 100 has drifted to a one-week low in its tenth consecutive session of sub-0.5% ranges, with energy and consumer-facing names softer while defense stocks continue to catch a bid. Currency markets remain a story of broad Dollar softness rather than European strength outright — both the euro and the pound are holding firm mostly because soft US labour data has capped the greenback, not because of fresh Eurozone or UK catalysts. Fixed income tells a similar story to equities: German Bund yields are grinding higher on oil-driven inflation angst even as European paper continues to outperform US Treasuries on the back of a clearer ECB policy path. Precious metals and crude are the session’s clearest directional movers, both driven by the same Hormuz risk-premium dynamic, while crypto assets are trading a mixed, wait-and-see pattern typical of a session dominated by a single afternoon catalyst.
European Session Economic Calendar — 12 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the European trading day (times in local exchange time unless noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇳Overnight | Fresh Attacks on Hormuz-Area Shipping | US and Houthis separately confirm new incidents near the strait | 🔴 CRITICAL | Hardens the oil risk premium; dims near-term reopening hopes |
| 🇮🇳Ongoing | Iran: Rezaei Says Hormuz Stays Shut | Strait remains closed until US meets Tehran’s conditions | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key swing factor for Crude Oil and broader risk sentiment |
| 🇬🇧08:00 BST | FTSE 100 Opens Lower | Index slips to 10,824, a more than one-week low | 🟢 MEDIUM | Tenth straight session of sub-0.5% range; cautious positioning |
| 🇪🇺Ongoing | German 20Y Bund Yield Extends Rise | Third consecutive session higher on oil-driven inflation angst | 🟢 MEDIUM | Bunds still outperforming Treasuries on clearer ECB path |
| 🇪🇺Ongoing | EUR/USD Holds Below 1.1540 | Cooling from last week’s seven-week high near 1.1573 | 🟢 MEDIUM | Broad Dollar flatness into CPI rather than fresh euro strength |
| 🇬🇧Ongoing | GBP/USD Near 1.3500, Highest Since 15 Jul | Sterling extending Monday’s strong-footing momentum | 🟢 MEDIUM | Soft US jobs data capping the Dollar continues to support cable |
| 🇩🇪Wed 12 Aug, 14:30 CEST | US CPI (July) | Headline and core inflation, the key input for the Fed’s rate path | 🔴 CRITICAL | Single most important release of the week; lands after the European close |
| 🇳🇵Ongoing | Bitmine Slows ETH Accumulation | Major holder shifts capital toward share buybacks | ⏰ LOW | Modest headwind for ETH/USD sentiment into the CPI print |
European Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s eight key instruments
EUR/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
EUR/USD is consolidating below 1.1540 after cooling from last week’s seven-week high near 1.1573. The move lower reflects broad Dollar flatness into this afternoon’s US CPI print rather than fresh euro weakness, with the ECB’s steady July policy stance keeping the pair range-bound.
Technical Outlook
Price is holding above the 1.1490–1.1531 support shelf that has capped downside over the past two sessions. A confirmed close above 1.1550 would open a path toward 1.1580, while a break below 1.1490 risks a deeper pullback toward 1.1450.
GBP/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Sterling is holding near 1.3500, its strongest level since 15 July, building on the momentum flagged at the start of the week. The move is being driven primarily by broad Dollar softness following last week’s weaker-than-expected US jobs report rather than a fresh domestic UK catalyst.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating just above the 1.3450–1.3500 zone that has underpinned the recent rally. A confirmed close above 1.3526, this week’s high, would open a path toward 1.3600, while a slip below 1.3450 risks a pullback toward the 1.3400 support shelf.
Silver
Fundamental Backdrop
Silver is holding above $65 an ounce, supported by both renewed safe-haven demand tied to the Hormuz shipping attacks and structurally strong industrial consumption from solar-panel manufacturing and electricity-grid buildout. Chinese silver-ore imports jumped 62.5% year-on-year in June, reinforcing the demand-side tailwind.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating just below its seven-week high. A confirmed close above $66.60 would open a path toward $68.00, while a slip below $64.00 risks a pullback toward the $62.50 support shelf.
Crude Oil
Fundamental Backdrop
WTI crude has climbed above $83 a barrel, its fourth consecutive session of gains, after fresh overnight attacks on Hormuz-area shipping and Iran’s statement that the strait stays closed hardened the geopolitical risk premium. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks at a multi-decade low add a further supply-side tailwind.
Technical Outlook
Price is testing the $83.50 area after opening near $82.17. A confirmed close above $84.61, today’s high, would open a path toward $86.00, while a slip below $81.29 risks a pullback toward the $80.00–$80.50 support zone.
FTSE 100
Fundamental Backdrop
The FTSE 100 has drifted to a more than one-week low near 10,824 as Shell, BP, AstraZeneca, GSK and Unilever weigh, while Burberry, Tesco and JD Sports have each dropped 1.7–2%. Defense names BAE Systems and Babcock continue to outperform, and the broader STOXX 600 remains within reach of last week’s record close.
Technical Outlook
Price is holding within the tight 10,825–10,877 intraday range that has defined the past ten sessions. A confirmed close above 10,900 would open a path toward 11,000, while a break below 10,750 risks a deeper pullback toward the 10,650 support shelf.
EU 20Y Yield
Fundamental Backdrop
German 20-year Bund yields are extending their climb for a third straight session as elevated oil prices tied to the Hormuz shipping attacks revive Eurozone inflation concerns. German paper continues to outperform US Treasuries on relative clarity around the ECB’s steady July policy stance versus lingering uncertainty over the Fed’s path.
Technical Outlook
Yields are testing resistance between the 15-year (3.32%) and 30-year (3.48%) tenors. A confirmed push above 3.48% would open a path toward 3.55%, while a reversal below 3.35% would signal renewed demand for European duration.
Litecoin
Fundamental Backdrop
Litecoin is firming toward $46.50, up over 1% on the day, amid lingering speculation over a potential spot Litecoin ETF as asset managers continue to file applications. The coin remains down sharply over the trailing 12 months, so today’s bounce should be read within a still-difficult longer-term trend.
Technical Outlook
Price is testing the upper end of its recent $45.87–$48.24 range. A confirmed close above $48.24 would open a path toward $50.00, while a slip below $44.50 risks a return toward the $42.50 support shelf.
ETH/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
ETH/USD is drifting lower near $1,895 after reports that major corporate holder Bitmine has slowed its Ethereum accumulation and shifted capital toward share buybacks, removing a source of steady buy-side flow. The broader crypto market remains in a wait-and-see posture ahead of this afternoon’s US CPI print.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating below last week’s local high near $1,916. A break below $1,850 would open a path toward $1,780, while a reclaim of $1,940 would risk a squeeze back toward the $1,990–$2,000 zone.
European Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why did oil jump again after days of Hormuz optimism?
Why is the FTSE 100 falling if European stocks were at record highs last week?
Are EUR/USD and GBP/USD rising because of European strength or Dollar weakness?
What should traders watch for the rest of the European session?
European Session Summary — Wednesday, 12 August 2026 (Live Update)
Wednesday’s European session is being shaped by a renewed Hormuz risk premium landing just hours before the week’s most important data release. Fresh overnight attacks on shipping near the strait, confirmed by both US officials and Yemen’s Houthi movement, have undercut the cautious optimism that built earlier in the week, with Iran’s top security official reinforcing that the waterway stays closed until Washington meets Tehran’s conditions. That has pushed Crude Oil above $83 a barrel for a fourth straight session of gains and kept Silver bid above $65 an ounce on a mix of safe-haven and industrial demand, while German 20-year Bund yields have climbed for a third session as oil-driven inflation angst revives even as European paper continues to outperform US Treasuries. The FTSE 100 has slipped to a more than one-week low near 10,824 as oil majors, healthcare and consumer names weigh, though defense stocks BAE Systems and Babcock continue to outperform and the broader STOXX 600 remains within reach of last week’s record close. EUR/USD is holding just below 1.1540 and GBP/USD is consolidating near 1.3500, its strongest level since 15 July, with both pairs firm mainly on broad Dollar softness following last week’s soft US jobs data rather than fresh European catalysts. In digital assets, Litecoin is firming toward $46.50 on lingering ETF speculation, while ETH/USD is drifting lower near $1,895 after reports that major holder Bitmine has slowed its accumulation in favour of share buybacks. Highest-conviction session idea: buy Crude Oil dips toward $82.00, targeting $86.00 — the renewed, verifiable Hormuz shipping-attack catalyst is a powerful tailwind, though any surprise diplomatic breakthrough remains a genuine source of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: EUR/USD buy dips toward 1.1490, stop 1.1450, target 1.1580 — broad Dollar softness into CPI is a genuine tailwind, though an upside US inflation surprise reviving Dollar demand is a real source of two-way risk. GBP/USD buy dips toward 1.3450, stop 1.3400, target 1.3600 — sterling’s multi-week highs reflect a genuine Dollar-weakness tailwind, though a hawkish CPI surprise is a real source of two-way risk. Silver buy dips toward $64.00, stop $62.50, target $68.00 — the combined safe-haven and industrial-demand story is a genuine tailwind, though profit-taking after the recent rally is a real source of two-way risk. Crude Oil buy dips toward $82.00, stop $80.50, target $86.00 — the renewed Hormuz attacks are a genuine, verifiable tailwind, though any diplomatic breakthrough remains a real source of two-way risk. FTSE 100 buy dips toward 10,750, stop 10,650, target 11,000 — the index’s tight, ten-session range and defense-sector strength argue for stabilization, though further oil-major and consumer-stock weakness is a real source of two-way risk. EU 20Y Yield buy dips toward 3.35%, stop 3.28%, target 3.55% — oil-driven Eurozone inflation angst is a genuine tailwind for yields, though continued Bund outperformance versus Treasuries is a real source of two-way risk. Litecoin await a confirmed break of the $44.50–$48.00 range before committing directionally — the ETF-speculation catalyst could resolve either way against broader crypto softness, making this a breakout-confirmation setup rather than a conviction call. ETH/USD sell rallies toward $1,940, stop $1,990, target $1,780 — Bitmine’s slowing accumulation is a genuine headwind, though a dovish CPI surprise reviving broad risk appetite is a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variable for the remainder of the global session is this afternoon’s US CPI print, due at 14:30 CEST, with any fresh Hormuz shipping-attack headlines the key wildcard for Crude Oil, Silver and European bond yields into Thursday’s Asian open. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply once US markets take over.
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