Asia’s Chip Selloff Runs Into a Second Session as Markets Brace for US Payrolls and the Dollar Firms Across the Board | Technical Analysis – Asian Session | 07-08-2026
Asia’s Chip Selloff Runs Into a Second Session as Markets Brace for US Payrolls and the Dollar Firms Across the Board
USD/JPY · AUD/USD · Aluminium · Corn · Nikkei 225 · Solana · Cardano — live Tokyo, Seoul and Sydney coverage through the Asian session
“When a chip selloff survives into its second session and a payrolls report is still hours away, the market isn’t pricing an ending — it’s pricing a pause.”
Friday’s Asian trade carries over the AI-chip anxiety that dominated Thursday, when South Korea’s Kospi tumbled more than 4% as heavyweight chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix sold off on reports that Meta Platforms is exploring a cloud-infrastructure business to sell spare AI computing capacity, and that Apple is evaluating memory chips from Chinese suppliers — both seen as threats to South Korea’s dominant memory producers. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed Thursday down 0.93% at 65,683, even as the broader Topix held up better, with chip-supply-chain names Kioxia Holdings, Taiyo Yuden, Murata Manufacturing, Ibiden and Tokyo Electron all posting outsized declines while SoftBank Group slipped ahead of its own earnings release. Today’s session is thinner than usual, with traders reluctant to build large positions ahead of the US July non-farm payrolls report due later on Friday, where consensus looks for a rebound to roughly 88,000 jobs from a soft 57,000 in June.
In currencies, USD/JPY is trading near 158.40, grinding higher as the dollar firms broadly into the payrolls release and as expectations for near-term Bank of Japan tightening take a back seat, even with Tokyo core inflation still running above target. AUD/USD has eased back to the 0.7030-0.7057 area, pulling away from a recent seven-week high, with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting next week now the dominant local catalyst even after a stronger-than-expected June trade surplus. In commodities, Aluminium is holding close to six-week highs near $3,230-3,255 a tonne as output outside China falls on reduced Middle East smelter run-rates and a binding Chinese production cap, while Corn is soft near $4.39 a bushel and close to a four-week low as softer crude oil undercuts ethanol-linked demand and traders weigh a large projected 2026 US harvest against a third straight weekly cut to USDA crop-condition ratings. In digital assets, Solana is capped near $73, still labouring below its 50-day moving average after Grayscale’s latest fund rebalance demoted it behind BNB, even as a newly amended Solana Staking ETF structure begins paying out quarterly cash distributions around today; Cardano, by contrast, has rallied roughly 19% over the past week to near $0.20, defying the same Grayscale rebalance — which cut its weighting from 17.96% to just 4.88% — on the back of reported whale accumulation and optimism around Cardano’s forthcoming Dijkstra-era protocol upgrades.
Asian Session News Flow
The stories moving USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Aluminium, Corn, Nikkei 225, Solana and Cardano this session
Asian Session Economic Calendar — 7 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through Tokyo, Seoul and Sydney trading hours (local times as noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸Later Today | US Non-Farm Payrolls (July) | Forecast +88K vs. prior +57K; unemployment rate also due | 🔴 CRITICAL | Dominant catalyst keeping Asian trade cautious and thin |
| 🇰🇷Overnight | Kospi Sinks More Than 4% on Chip Selloff | Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix lead declines on Meta/Apple reports | 🔴 CRITICAL | Second straight session of AI-valuation pressure across the region |
| 🇯🇵Overnight | Nikkei 225 Closes Down 0.93% at 65,683 | Kioxia, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, Tokyo Electron all sharply lower | 🔴 CRITICAL | Chip-supply-chain weakness dragging the broader index |
| 🇳🇰Ongoing | Iran-Oman Hormuz Deal “Agreed in Principle” | Iran cautions any deal will not fully reopen the strait | 🟢 MEDIUM | Keeping a lid on oil, an indirect drag on Corn via ethanol demand |
| 🇦🇺Next Week | RBA Policy Meeting Approaches | Markets price almost no chance of a hike | 🟢 MEDIUM | Capping AUD/USD upside ahead of the decision |
| 🇨🇳Ongoing | Ex-China Aluminium Output Falls 6.7% YoY in July | Middle East smelter run-rates down; China 45mt cap binding | 🟢 MEDIUM | Underpinning Aluminium near six-week highs |
| 🇺🇸This Week | USDA Cuts Corn Good/Excellent Rating (3rd Straight Week) | StoneX projects 2026 US crop near 16.16bn bushels | 🟢 MEDIUM | Partial offset to bearish supply and softer-oil pressure on Corn |
| ₿This Week | Grayscale Smart Contract Fund Rebalance (Effective 3 Aug) | BNB now top holding at 30.6%; ADA cut from 17.96% to 4.88% | 🟢 MEDIUM | Weighing on Solana sentiment while Cardano rallies regardless |
| ₿Around Today | Grayscale Solana Staking ETF (GSOL) Cash Distributions Begin | Quarterly staking-reward payouts to holders start on/about 7 Aug | 🟢 MEDIUM | Structural long-term positive for Solana, secondary to near-term flows |
Asian Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s seven key instruments
USD/JPY
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/JPY is trading near 158.40, edging higher as the dollar firms broadly across G10 pairs into Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report, forecast at roughly 88,000 jobs versus a soft 57,000 in June. Near-term Bank of Japan tightening bets have taken a back seat to the payrolls setup even though Tokyo core inflation has continued to run above target, a dynamic that keeps two-way risk alive if the US data disappoints.
Technical Outlook
The pair is consolidating just under its recent highs, with the 52-week range spanning roughly 145.50 to 164.00. A confirmed dip toward 157.70 that holds would keep the broader uptrend intact and open a path to the 159.80 zone, while a sharp payrolls miss that unwinds dollar strength would risk a slide back below 156.80.
AUD/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
AUD/USD has pulled back to the 0.7030-0.7057 area, easing from a recent seven-week high as broad dollar strength ahead of the US payrolls report outweighs a stronger-than-expected Australian June trade surplus of A$1.929bn. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting next week is now the dominant local driver, with markets pricing almost no chance of a move.
Technical Outlook
The pair is holding just below resistance near 0.7075, which has capped rallies this week. A confirmed break below 0.6990 would open a path toward the 0.6950 zone, while a dovish payrolls surprise that weighs on the dollar would risk a squeeze back above 0.7130.
Aluminium
Fundamental Backdrop
Aluminium is trading near $3,230-3,255 a tonne, close to a six-week high, as output outside China fell 6.7% year-on-year in July on reduced operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters, compounded by China’s increasingly binding 45-million-tonne annual production cap. Alcoa’s production-forecast cut after an Australian refinery issue has added to the supply squeeze, even as planned restarts at Slovalco and a Missouri smelter offer a longer-term offset.
Technical Outlook
The metal is consolidating just under resistance near $3,300, its highest level in roughly six weeks. A confirmed dip toward $3,190 that holds would keep the uptrend intact, while a wave of restart announcements that eases the supply squeeze would risk a slide back below $3,140.
Corn
Fundamental Backdrop
Corn futures are trading near $4.39 a bushel, close to a four-week low, as softer crude oil prices weigh on ethanol-linked demand and StoneX projects a large 2026 US harvest of roughly 16.16 billion bushels. That bearish supply backdrop has only been partly offset by a third consecutive weekly cut to the USDA’s good-to-excellent crop rating and continued Russia-Ukraine tensions around Black Sea export infrastructure.
Technical Outlook
The market is holding below resistance near $4.50, which has capped rallies this week. A confirmed break below $4.30 would open a path toward the $4.20 zone, while confirmation of a durable Strait of Hormuz reopening that lifts energy-linked demand would risk a squeeze back above $4.62.
Nikkei 225
Fundamental Backdrop
The Nikkei 225 closed Thursday down 0.93% at 65,683, giving back part of the prior session’s gains as chip-supply-chain names including Kioxia Holdings, Taiyo Yuden, Murata Manufacturing, Ibiden and Tokyo Electron all fell sharply on renewed AI-valuation concerns spreading from South Korea, where the Kospi sank more than 4%. SoftBank Group slipped ahead of its own earnings release, while Nintendo bucked the trend on tariff refunds and strong Switch 2 sales. Friday’s session is thinner and more cautious ahead of the US payrolls report.
Technical Outlook
The index is consolidating below resistance near 66,300, which has capped rebound attempts this week. A confirmed break below 65,000 would open a path toward the 64,700 zone, while a stabilisation in Asian chip stocks or a soft payrolls print that eases global rate concerns would risk a squeeze back above 66,900.
Solana
Fundamental Backdrop
Solana is trading near $73, still capped below its 50-day exponential moving average around $75.68 after Grayscale’s Q2 rebalance of its Smart Contract Fund, effective 3 August, made BNB the top holding at 30.6% and pushed SOL out of its prior top spot. That said, SOL-focused ETFs drew roughly $14.6 million of net inflows in July, and Grayscale’s amended Solana Staking ETF structure begins compulsory quarterly cash distributions of staking rewards around today, alongside sharply reduced management and staking fees — a structurally supportive, if slower-burning, offset.
Technical Outlook
The token is consolidating below resistance near $76.50, which has capped bounce attempts this week. A confirmed break below $71 would open a path toward the $68 zone, while a broader crypto risk-on move or strong reception of the new ETF distribution structure would risk a squeeze back above $79.20.
Cardano
Fundamental Backdrop
Cardano is trading near $0.20, up roughly 7% in the past 24 hours and around 19% over the past week, defying Grayscale’s latest Smart Contract Fund rebalance, which cut ADA’s weighting sharply from 17.96% in May to just 4.88% in August in favour of BNB. The rally instead appears driven by reported whale accumulation, strengthening derivatives positioning, and growing anticipation of Cardano’s forthcoming Dijkstra-era upgrades, including Nested Transactions and Linear Leios, both targeted for mainnet by late 2026.
Technical Outlook
The token has broken above a key ascending trendline and is holding well above its recent range lows. A confirmed dip toward $0.188 that holds would keep the breakout intact and open a path toward the $0.225 zone, while a broader crypto risk-off move that overwhelms the current momentum would risk a slide back below $0.178.
Asian Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why is the Nikkei 225 still under pressure after Thursday’s chip-driven selloff?
Why is the dollar firm against both the yen and the Australian dollar today?
Why is Aluminium holding up while Corn is soft, given both are commodities?
Why are Solana and Cardano moving in opposite directions after the same Grayscale news?
Asian Session Summary — Friday, 7 August 2026 (Live Update)
Friday’s Asian session is carrying over Thursday’s AI-chip-driven selloff into a second day, with South Korea’s Kospi having sunk more than 4% on reports that Meta is exploring its own AI cloud-capacity business and that Apple is evaluating Chinese memory suppliers, both seen as threats to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 0.93% at 65,683 as chip-supply-chain names Kioxia, Taiyo Yuden, Murata Manufacturing and Tokyo Electron all fell sharply. Trade across the region is notably thinner today, with participants reluctant to build large positions ahead of the closely watched US July non-farm payrolls report, forecast at roughly 88,000 jobs versus a soft 57,000 in June. In FX, USD/JPY is trading near 158.40 as the dollar firms broadly into the release, while AUD/USD has slipped to the 0.7030-0.7057 area, pulling back from a seven-week high with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting next week now in view. Aluminium is holding near $3,230-3,255 a tonne, close to a six-week high on tightening ex-China supply, while Corn is soft near $4.39 a bushel, close to a four-week low, as softer crude oil and ample harvest expectations weigh. In digital assets, Solana is capped near $73 after Grayscale’s fund rebalance demoted it from top billing, while Cardano has rallied to near $0.20, up roughly 19% over the past week, defying the very same rebalance that slashed its own weighting. Highest-conviction session idea: sell Nikkei 225 rallies toward 66,300, targeting 64,700 — a second straight session of regional chip-sector contagion, layered onto pre-payrolls caution, is a powerful catalyst for further downside, though a stabilisation in Asian chip stocks or a soft US jobs print are genuine sources of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: USD/JPY buy dips toward 157.70, stop 156.80, target 159.80 — broad dollar firmness into today’s payrolls report is a genuine tailwind, though a soft print that unwinds dollar strength is a real source of two-way risk. AUD/USD sell rallies toward 0.7075, stop 0.7130, target 0.6950 — the pullback from a seven-week high and next week’s RBA meeting are genuine headwinds, though a dovish payrolls surprise is a real source of two-way risk. Aluminium buy dips toward $3,190, stop $3,140, target $3,300 — tightening ex-China supply is a powerful tailwind, though a wave of smelter restarts is a real source of two-way risk. Corn sell rallies toward $4.50, stop $4.62, target $4.20 — softer oil and a large projected harvest are genuine headwinds, though further USDA crop-rating cuts are a real source of two-way risk. Nikkei 225 sell rallies toward 66,300, stop 66,900, target 64,700 — the regional chip-sector contagion is a powerful headwind, though a soft payrolls print that eases global rate concerns is a real source of two-way risk. Solana sell rallies toward $76.50, stop $79.20, target $68 — the Grayscale demotion and sub-50-day-average technicals are genuine headwinds, though the new Staking ETF distribution structure is a real source of two-way risk longer term. Cardano buy dips toward $0.188, stop $0.178, target $0.225 — whale accumulation and upgrade optimism are powerful tailwinds, though a broader crypto risk-off move is a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variable for the remainder of the session is this afternoon’s US non-farm payrolls report, alongside any further stabilisation or deterioration in South Korean and Japanese chip names and incoming detail on the Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz shipping arrangement. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply intraday.
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